Donald Trump’s reelection odds took a big drop this week with the appointment of a special counsel. He is still the odds-on favorite having a higher probability than the next three candidates combined. The payout for putting money on trump increases from 3.1X to 3.3X and his probability dropped from 20.5% to 19.4%. It began at 30.0% shortly after his election.
Trump’s drop helped his closest competition in 2020. Mike Pence, who has been in 2nd place the entire time improves from 7.4% to 7.6%. His payout decreases from 8.6X to 8.3X, his lowest to date. There was increased talk among some Republicans of Pence being a better path forward to getting the Republican agenda through.
Elizabeth Warren, who has been in 3rd place and the Democratic leader in odds, also improved. Her odds improved from 6.1% to 6.5%. Her payout dropped from 10.4X to 9.8X.
Donald Trump’s odds continued their slow decline, moving from 20.7% to 20.5%, his lowest since the election. His payout increases from 3.0X to 3.1X. He still has as much probability as the next four candidates.
Hillary Clinton lost her bump from last week when she “resurfaced” in the media. She drops to 6th place falling behind Cory Booker. Her payout increased from 22.0x to 22.8X, the highest payout (or lowest probability) since the beginning of January.
The drop with Clinton seemed to give another well known Democrat, Joe Biden, a bump. He hops over Paul Ryan for 8th place. His payout drops from 28.5X to 26.3X. This is the lowest payout all year.
The hottest name continues to be Mark Zuckerberg. He moves from 13th place to 11th place. His payout drops from 33.9X to 32.1X. Zuckerberg has been up in 10 of the last 13 weeks. He continues to move up since he made his debut in January in 50th place at a payout of 107X.
Donald Trump’s odds continued their slow decline, moving from 21.3% to 20.7%, his lowest since the election. His payout remains at 3.0X. (3.03X compared to 2.95X last week). He still has as much probability as the next four candidates.
Hillary Clinton resurfaced this week blaming her loss on the Russian hack and news of the FBI investigation. She made it clear she is part of the “resistance”. She remained in 5th place with a slight increase in odds. Her payout drops from 22.4X to 22.0X.
Amy Klobuchar was in Iowa this week fueling speculation of a 2020 run. She is in 15th place. Her payout dropped from 36.2X to 34.3X.
The biggest winner of the week was Mark Zuckerberg. He moves from 16th place to 13th place. His payout drops from 37.8X to 33.9X. Zuckerberg has been up in 9 of the last 12 weeks. He continues to move up since he made his debut in January in 50th place at a payout of 107X.
