Category Archives: Trump 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Franken 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Steady; Kamala Harris into Top 10; Franken up, Biden down

For the 9th straight week, Donald Trump’s payout remained at 3.0X with his probability at 20.4%.  That is once again equivalent to the probability for the next four competitors combined.

Kamala Harris was the hottest name on the week as she continues to meet with Democratic power brokers and donors. Her payout dropped from 28.6X to 25.2X.  That was enough for her to jump over Paul Ryan for 10th place overall.  Her payout was over 30X just four weeks ago.

Al Franken continues to be another hot name.  His payout dropped from 63X to 59X.  He was at 71.7X five weeks ago before releasing his book and embarking on a bit of a promotional tour.  He is currently in 29th place.

One big drop was Joe Biden who’s payout moved from 23.3X to 24.2X.  This is the worst he has been in 9 weeks.  He was asked about running in 2020 by Katie Couric and dodged the question on Saturday.  He remains in 7th place overall.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 716

2020 Weekly Odds, Johnson 2020, Pence 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Trump Steady Despite Trump Jr. Emails; Dwayne Johnson Regains Momentum with Launch of Election Committee; Pence up, Sanders down

 

Despite last week’s continuing saga of Donald Trump Jr./Russian meeting emails, Donald Trump’s odds remained steady for the 8th straight week at 3.0X.  His odds are nearly three times that of his next opponent who happens to be his VP, Mike Pence.

Mike Pence’s odds got a boost on the week with the payout dropping from 8.7X to 8.5X.  That is his highest in four weeks.  Some took the fact that he has remained low key with his response to the emails as him hedging his bet and positioning himself to potentially become President.

Bernie Sanders had one of the biggest drops.  He had been hot lately with his opposition to the Republican healthcare bills.  His payout had steadily declined from 23.9X in the middle of May to last week’s 18.6X.  That suddenly reversed this week to 19.4X.  When asked this week about running in 2020, he said ‘I am not taking it off the table’  One reason for the drop could be a federal probe into a land deal his wife was involved in. He remains in 5th overall and 3rd as far as Democrats behind Warren and Obama.

Eight weeks ago, the hottest name was actor Dwayne Johnson.  Following an appearance on the Tonight Show, he jumped from 41st place in the middle of May to 16th place in the span of two weeks.  He has then held steady. This week a campaign committee was started on his behalf. His payout dropped from 42.7X to 31.0X.  This was enough to move him from 21st to 13th place.

Here is a list of all the odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 755

2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Harris 2020, Sasse 2020, Trump 2020

Trump Steady at the Top; Booker and Harris Improve; Sasse to Challenge Trump?

For the 7th straight week, Donald Trump’s odds continued at 3.0X.  Trump reach his high point in the weeks leading up to his inauguration when the payout was at only 2.4X.  He bottomed at 3.3X on 5/20, the week the special counsel was announced. His odds of winning are currently at 20.3%, as much as the next four competitors combined (Pence, Warren, Obama, Sanders)

Cory Booker continues to be in the top tier of competitors.  He moved up from 7th place to 6th place this week. He was asked about running in 2020 and answered “I don’t know what the future’s going to bring,” His payout moved from 22.4X to 21.4X.  That is his highest since the middle of January.

Another Democrat who improved is CA Senator Kamala Harris.  The freshman Senator has raised her profile within her own party by helping Democrats running in 2018 raise money. She moved up from 12th place to 11th place as her payout dropped from 30.9X to 27.9X.  This is the highest she has been this cycle.

One Republican who hasn’t been shy about criticizing Donald Trump is Ben Sasse.  He was asked last Sunday about whether he would challenge Trump. He didn’t answer the question, fueling speculation.  He moved up from 44th place to 40th place with the payout moving from 101X to 89.7X.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 761