Category Archives: Trump 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Cruz 2020, Harris 2020, ORourke 2020, Pence 2020, Romney 2020, Rubio 2020, Ryan 2020, Sasse 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized, Warren 2020

Donald Trump’s odds continue slow decline giving life to the odds of other Republicans; Beto stays hot and takes lead for the Democrats; Former Democratic favorite Warren continues decline, now 6th overall

Donald Trump’s odds continued to drop moving from 2.61X to 2.65X.  He has now dropped for five straight weeks and his odds are their lowest since June.

The recent drops appear to have given life to the odds of Republican alternatives, as a group of them jumped all of a sudden including:

  • Mike Pence from 25.7X to 23.5X
  • Paul Ryan from 83.2X to 78.2X
  • Mitt Romney from 93.3X to 80.8X
  • Marco Rubio from 96.4X to 94.1X
  • Scott Walker from 101.2X to 97.8X
  • Ted Cruz from 115.3X to 110.9X
  • Tom Cotton from 115.4X to 73.9X
  • Ben Sasse from 124.3X to 119.5X

Beto O’Rourke has been the hottest name in the betting odds, and that has seemed to translate to mainstream political pundits, as CNN ranks him second among Democrats for 2020. His odds improved again this time from 8.22X to 7.71 times.  That was enough to have him jump over Kamala Harris to become the odds favorite for Democrats.

The person that has seen the biggest drop recently has been Elizabeth Warren.  In a recent poll, she has dropped to 7th overall for the Democrats. Her odds dropped again this week from 18.1X to 20.1X.  That dropped her to 5th overall in odds for the Democrats.  She was in 2nd place among the Democrats and at 11.5X merely seven weeks ago.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, ORourke 2020, Trump 2020

Donald Trump’s Odds Lowest in 6 Months; O’Rourke Close to Taking 2nd Place; Biden “Most Qualified” for President; Bloomberg Meets with Iowa Democrats

Donald Trump’s odds dropped for the fourth straight week moving from 2.56X to 2.61X.  These are his lowest odds in 6 months.  He is still higher than his lowest odds of this cycle which were at 3.46X  in September 2017.

The hottest name continues to be Beto O’Rourke.  His odds rose once again, this time from 9.37X to 8.22X.  He is very close to passing Kamala Harris for second place overall.  Kamala Harris is at 7.86X, and has been improving each week, but not at the pace of O’Rourke.  O’Rourke landed a big Obama fundraiser this week. 

Joe Biden is “the most qualified person in the country to be president”……this according to Joe Biden. His odds jumped from 19.3X to 16.9X. This was enough to jump Elizabeth Warren for 4th place overall.  These are his highest odds in 3 months.

Michael Bloomberg continues to take small steps that signal he’s running.  This week, he met privately with top Iowa Democrats. His odds improved once again, this time from 32.6X to 30.2X.  That was enough to move him to 8th place overall.

Here are the full odds:

For updates follow me on Twitter

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2020 Weekly Odds, Kerry 2020, Landrieu 2020, ORourke 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s odds decline for third straight week and are lowest since June; Beto mania continues with invitation to NH; Landrieu’s odds rise despite denials of running; Kerry not ruling a run out

Donald Trump’s odds declined for a third straight week coming in at 2.56X down from 2.53X.  The 2.56X are Trump’s worst odds in  25 weeks (beginning of June).  He is still more than three times the odds of the next closest candidate, Kamala Harris at 8.03X.

Enthusiasm for Beto O’Rourke  continues as Democrats from New Hampshire become the latest to invite him to the speak. His odds took another jump improving to 9.4X from 11.0X.  He only made his debut in the odds 15 weeks ago after his answer to the football players kneeling went viral.  That debut was in 15th place at 54.7X.

Former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu continues to say he’s not running and that he’s too much of a centrist.   His odds continue to improve however, coming in at 87.8X up from 97.9X, improving his standing from 47th place to 37th.  This is the highest he has been this cycle.

Former Democratic nominee John Kerry said he is thinking about running.  His odds improved from 131.4X to 104.2X, leading to a jump from 69th place to 50th place.  His comments made it seem like running would be dependent on whether others that he sees as qualified (Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg) run.

This wait and see strategy seems to be the attitude of dozens of other candidates on the Democratic side.  It will be interesting to see which candidates announce first and how it impacts others.  So far there are only two major Democratic candidates that have formally filed, and both are long shots: John Delaney announced in 2017 (currently 73rd place) and Richard Ojeda who announced a few weeks back (currently 29th place).

Here are the full odds:

For updates follow me on Twitter

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