Category Archives: Landrieu 2020

Trump’s odds decline for third straight week and are lowest since June; Beto mania continues with invitation to NH; Landrieu’s odds rise despite denials of running; Kerry not ruling a run out

Donald Trump’s odds declined for a third straight week coming in at 2.56X down from 2.53X.  The 2.56X are Trump’s worst odds in  25 weeks (beginning of June).  He is still more than three times the odds of the next closest candidate, Kamala Harris at 8.03X.

Enthusiasm for Beto O’Rourke  continues as Democrats from New Hampshire become the latest to invite him to the speak. His odds took another jump improving to 9.4X from 11.0X.  He only made his debut in the odds 15 weeks ago after his answer to the football players kneeling went viral.  That debut was in 15th place at 54.7X.

Former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu continues to say he’s not running and that he’s too much of a centrist.   His odds continue to improve however, coming in at 87.8X up from 97.9X, improving his standing from 47th place to 37th.  This is the highest he has been this cycle.

Former Democratic nominee John Kerry said he is thinking about running.  His odds improved from 131.4X to 104.2X, leading to a jump from 69th place to 50th place.  His comments made it seem like running would be dependent on whether others that he sees as qualified (Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg) run.

This wait and see strategy seems to be the attitude of dozens of other candidates on the Democratic side.  It will be interesting to see which candidates announce first and how it impacts others.  So far there are only two major Democratic candidates that have formally filed, and both are long shots: John Delaney announced in 2017 (currently 73rd place) and Richard Ojeda who announced a few weeks back (currently 29th place).

Here are the full odds:

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