Category Archives: Trump 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Inslee 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds continue to reach new highs, despite recent increase in disapproval ratings; Warren continues gaining momentum in both polls and odds; Inslee gets top grade from Greenpeace, sees a jump in odds

Trump’s Odds continued their hot streak, as they have been either up or flat for the last 14 weeks. This week they improved from 2.04X to 2.02X. The recent increase has diverged from recent polls showing a drop in net favorability which dropped in the past 4 weeks by about 3% (from around -9.5% to -12.5%.

The only other top tier candidate to show an improvement this week was Elizabeth Warren. Her odds have seen a consistent improvement the last 6 weeks improving from 34.0X to the current 21.5X. She has been very active in her campaigning and has had the most detail behind her policies. That seems to be paying dividend as the polls are beginning to show movement in her direction.

Jay Inslee is considered the “Green” candidate, and not surprisingly, he got the top grade in Greanpeace’s grading of the top 20 candidates . His odds jumped this week from 165.6X to 151.9X. He remains an extreme long shot as he moved from 42nd place to 33rd (keep in mind there’s only 25 or so official candidates).

Below is the list of 61 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Yang 2020

Trump and Biden continue hot streak as they distance themselves from the field; Sanders continues losing ground in third place; Beto’s attempt at a reboot appears to be unsuccessful

The trend of Trump and Biden reaching new highs is in its sixth week now.

Donald Trunp’s odds improved from last week’s high of 2.10X to 2.04X this week. His odds have now improved the last 13 weeks (over 90 days). They were are at 2.93X at that time. That is an improvement of over 40% over that time.

Joe Biden’s streak isn’t as long since it wasn’t known 13 weeks ago if he would even run. In half the time (last 6 weeks), he has improved from 10.7X to 5.57X, which is over a 90% improvement. The majority of thinking now is it’s Joe Biden’s nomination to lose.

7 out of the next 10 competitors saw a decrease in odds including the third place candidate, Bernie Sanders. He has now dropped for five straight weeks (basically the same time period as Biden has been up). Sanders dropped this week from 7.69X to 8.35X. He was at 6.74X when the streak started. This is his lowest in 12 weeks. The challenge for Sanders is beyond his base his unfavorability is one of the worst (41% fav 48% unfav), although that is still better than the President’s (38%/57%)

The coldest name has been Beto O’Rourke. He dropped this week from 24.4X to 27.6X. Beto has dropped for 9 straight weeks. He was at 8.9X and in 5th place then. He dropped this week to 8th place behind Andrew Yang. Beto tried to reboot his campaign this week with a CNN townhall but hat was very poorly watched.

Below is the list of 64 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

For updates follow me on Twitter

Views – 518
2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bullock 2020, de Blasio 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump reaches another high in odds despite polls showing top Dems ahead; Biden’s momentum continues doubling odds in 6 weeks; A hot Warren jumps a once hot Beto; De Blasio becomes 23rd Dem candidate

Donald Trump’s odds reached a new high this week at 2.10X up from last week’s previous high of 2.18X. He has now either been tied or achieved a new high the last 12 weeks. The odds have achieved these highs despite recent polls, including this one from Fox News, showing the top 3 Democrats would beat Trump head to head.

The hottest name continues to be Joe Biden. He achieved another new high improving from 6.11X to 5.84X. He has now improved the last 5 weeks, nearly doubling his odds since. He was at 10.7X just 6 weeks ago. Biden has been ramping up his campaign including making Philadelphia (with Pennsylvania a must win state) his headquarters.

The other name for the Democrats gaining momentum is Elizabeth Warren. She improved once again from 23.6X to 22.7X. She has now improved for four straight weeks and just passed Beto for 6th place. Her growth seems to be coming with progressives at the expense of Bernie Sanders. Sanders is still ahead of her in 3rd place with nearly 3 times the odds (7.69X).

What’s another week without more candidates for the Democrats. This week saw candidates #22 and 23. First came Montana Governor Steve Bullock. Bullock, whose credentials include being a Democratic Governor in a Red state, didn’t make much of a splash. His odds actually dropped from 141.4X to 145.8X. He is in 35th place overall.

Next came NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio. His announcement had a bigger impact in the odds. He rocketed from 166.9X to 124.3X moving him up from 45th to 21st place.

Below is the list of 64 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

For updates follow me on Twitter

Views – 625