Category Archives: Steyer 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Harris 2020, Hickenlooper 2020, Sanders 2020, Steyer 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Big changes for the Dems as Warren’s odds overtake Biden’s; Trump sees a small drop, but still near his highs; Sanders recent hot streak puts him close to a declining Harris; Steyer’s odds skyrocket on ad spending and likelihood of qualifying for 3rd debate

For the second straight week, Trump’s odds saw a small decrease, this time from 1.91X to 1.93X. This is the lowest he’s been in 4 weeks, but not far from his all time high of 1.90X. The top 5 Democrats maintained their combined odds at 1.92X, meaning they moved slightly ahead of Trump.

There were big changes on the Democratic side as Elizabeth Warren passed Joe Biden for 2nd place overall. Warren’s odds continued to rocket, this time improving from 7.53X to 6.14X. The 6.14X is an all time high for her, and this is the first time that Warren has been in second place in 18 months. A Fox News poll showed her recent surge where she is now preferred by 20% of Democrats compared to just 4% in March.

Biden’s odds dropped from 6.62X to 6.89X, his lowest in 3 weeks. That same poll showed he is still the leader with him being preferred by 31%, flat to March.

Kamala Harris’ odds continued to drop this time from 8.9X to 11.8X. The drop wasn’t driven by any news other than potentially being flat in that same Fox News poll at 8% now and back in March.

Bernie Sanders’ odds continued seeing life post the second debate improving from 12.9X to 12.1X. This is his highest in 8 weeks and and he is now within striking distance of Harris.

Tom Steyer’s odds rocketed from 221X to 137X as his spending on ads has put him in position to qualify for the third Democratic debate (needs one more poll to qualify)

John Hickenlooper announced he is ending his campaign. He may run for the Senate. He becomes the third Democrat to drop out, leaving only 23!

Here are the current odds for those better than 200 to 1:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Harris 2020, Steyer 2020, Trump 2020

Donald Trump’s Odds set another new high; Kamala’s momentum continues; Steyer reenters race; Cory Booker slowly improving under the radar

Donald Trump’s Odds set a new high with a small improvement over prior week. The odds improved from 2.00X last week to 1.99X this week. The odds have been in a tight range of 1.99X to 2.04X the last 8 weeks. Interestingly (due to Harris’ improvement), his odds vs. the top 5 Democrats dipped to 48.7% compared to last week’s 49.0%. The combined odds of the top 5 Democrats improved from 1.92X to 1.89X.

Since the first Democratic Debate, Kamala Harris has been the hottest name and she continued that trend this week. Her odds improved from 6.33X to 5.57X, another new high for her (and slightly behind the high for the Democrats by Joe Biden of 5.19X at the beginning of June). She was at 13.5X prior to the debates.

Tom Steyer threw his name back into the race. His odds saw a large increase from 260X to 193X. That took him up from 76th place to 37th place. Prior to exiting in April, he was in 28th place and at 129X. His peak was at 82X in November 2018.

The one name flying under the radar that has been improving the last few weeks is Cory Booker. He has improved in each of the last 4 weeks and is now at 62.3X and 10th place overall. The 62.3X is the highest he has been in 8 weeks. Keep an eye on SC, an early primary state, for Booker. He is getting endorsements from the state.

Here are the candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:

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2018 Elections, Flake 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Steyer 2020, Trump 2020

Donald Trump’s odds lowest in a month; Could Klobuchar’s calm Midwestern style be her advantage? Jeff Flake wants someone in GOP to challenge Trump; Billionaire Tom Steyer looking more like a candidate

For the second week in a row, Donald Trump’s odds dropped slightly this time from 2.49X to 2.53X.  These are the lowest odds he has had in 5 weeks but well above his average for the cycle of of 2.86X.

Amy Klobuchar  has seen her odds improve in the past few weeks.  She was at 54.4X at in 16th place just four weeks ago.  She has steadily improved since and comes in at 37.9X and in 12th place.  Many think her calm Midwestern style makes her standout from other 2020 candidates.

Jeff Flake announced that he doesn’t think that he will be a 2020 challenger to Trump but believes that somebody from the GOP should challenge him.  His odds improved from 129.9X to 117.3X.  That was enough to jump him from 70th place to 58th place.

One of the most vocal opponents of Trump has been billionaire Tom Steyer.  His ad buys and scheduled townhalls have many thinking he will be running. His odds jumped up from 93.8X to 81.8X, moving him up from 40th place to 31st place.

Here are the full odds:

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