Category Archives: Steyer 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Sanders 2020, Steyer 2020, Trump 2020

Biden’s odds surge on the back of South Carolina and Super Tuesday performance and the dropout and endorsement of rivals; Trump’s Odds remain near all time highs; Sanders’ odds tank to a 4 month low; Who’s a tougher matchup for Trump? A State by state look

There was a tremendous amount of shakeout in odds this past week on the Democratic side, to reflect the big changes in the field. It all started with an endorsement of Joe Biden prior to the South Carolina primary by Jim Clyburn. Although Biden would have likely won with or without the endorsement, it helped Biden to a route as he more than doubled Bernie Sanders’ vote total. That was followed up shortly with Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Tom Steyer all dropping out and endorsing Biden prior to Super Tuesday. This gave Biden the momentum for Super Tuesday, where he beat Bernie Sanders (who prior to the weekend was believed to be the winner for that important day). This also ended the short lived but expensive campaign of Michael Bloomberg who endorsed Biden as well, and ended the campaign of Elizabeth Warren, who has yet to endorse anyone.

Where does this leave us as far as the odds with really three candidates remaining?

Despite the improved likelihood of a centrist (Biden) winning the Democratic ticket, and the bad headlines on the Coronavirus/stock market, Trump’s odds remained very resilient. They were flat to last week’s 1.60X and just shy of the all time high of 1.59X. They have been either 1.59X or 1.60X the last 5 weeks. The combined odds for Biden and Sanders are currently 2.93, which puts Trump’s odds against those two at 65.2%

Joe Biden’s results obviously saw a tremendous jump from 8.70X to 3.99X, his all tine high.

3.99X is exactly where Sanders was last week. He dropped this week from 3.99X to 12.0X. His lowest since mid November.

Hillary Clinton and Mike Pence remained fairly strong as the alternatives at 71.1X and 74.6X, and Michael Bloomberg, with the ability to come in from sidelines with his billions should Biden falter is at 166.0X.

With the Democrats down to two main candidates, we will transition this blog to look at those two candidates against Trump on a state by state basis. Below is the current summary of the more important states (either swing or high number of electoral), and recent polls of the two candidates vs. Trump. This will get refined as more polls start coming in. Currently, this crude method has Democrats winning by 50 electoral votes regardless of candidate (the opposite of what the betting market suggests). Although the result is the same whether it’s Biden or Sanders, it’s important to point out that with the 6 states with recent polls, Biden does better against Trump in 4 of them than Sanders does. They both do equally against Trump in the other 2.

Here are the current odds of the remaining field as well as the state by state early look:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Gabbard 2020, Harris 2020, JoeWalsh 2020, Sanders 2020, Steyer 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

Trump’s odds see a small decline for fourth straight week; Warren continues to rise setting another high; Yang jumps Buttigieg for 5th place; Joe Walsh makes debut on the odds

Donald Trump saw his fourth straight drop in a row this week with the odds moving from 1.98X to 2.01X. Those are his lowest odds in 9 weeks. He’s not far off his all time however of 1.90X which he was at prior to this streak. His odds vs. the top 5 Democrats dropped from 49.3% to 48.9%. The combined odds of the top 5 Democrats is now at 1.92X.

Elizabeth Warren continued to rise, increasing her odds from 5.90X to 5.65X, another new high. She has improved in 18 of the last 19 weeks. She was at 34X when this rise started in late April.

Bernie Sanders had a good week as well with his odds rising from 12.0X to 11.1X. He now has a 5 week winning streak. This is the highest he has been in 11 weeks. He basically has half the odds of Warren.

Andrew Yang jumped into the 5th spot this week partly as a result of his gains and partly due to Pete Buttigieg’s continued continued struggles. Yang’s odds jumped from 28.5X to 26.2X, his highest in 9 weeks. Yang has a hardcore following that has claimed media bias against the candidate including this week by CNN. Buttigieg’s odds dropped from 24.4X to 28.7X, his lowest since the end of March. He has now declined the last 10 weeks. His campaign claims they are ready for “phase three”.

A couple of names that didn’t make the third Democratic debate saw big drops. Tulsi Gabbard dropped from 45.7X to 66.9X, her lowest in over 2 years (since March 2017). Tom Steyer couldn’t buy his way into the debate (although he’s likely to do so for the next debate). His odds dropped from 120.9X to 146.9X. They are still above the 200+ odds he’s been at prior to three weeks ago.

Joe Walsh formally announced his attempt to take on Trump in the Republican primary last Sunday. He makes his debut in the odds this week at 169X and in 22nd place.

Here are the odds for all candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Cruz 2020, Harris 2020, Kasich 2020, Romney 2020, Sasse 2020, Steyer 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds drop for a 3rd week in a row, still near highs; Warren, Biden, Steyer improve; Harris and Buttigieg continue to drop; Odds of Republican alternatives showing signs of life

Donald Trump’s Odds saw a drop for a third straight week moving from 1.93X to 1.98X. the 1.98X is his lowest in 5 weeks but is still close to his all time high of 1.90X achieved the beginning of August. His odds compared to the top 5 Democrats also decreased from 49.9% to 50.7%. This was purely a result of his drop. The top 5 Democrats saw a small decrease from 1.92X to 1.93X.

Elizabeth Warren continued to be the hottest name improving once again. Warren’s odds are now at 5.90X up from 6.14X. This is another new high for her. The Democratic high is held by Joe Biden at 5.19X in June. She has improved or been flat in 18 straight weeks.

Joe Biden saw a small improvement from 6.89X to 6.63X. This basically puts him back to where he was a few weeks ago after the 2nd debate.

Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg continued to drop. Harris declined from 11.8X to 13.4X. She has now declined for 6 straight weeks and is at her lowest point in 9 weeks.

Buttigieg declined from 21.7X to 24.4X. He has now declined in nine straight weeks and has reached his lowest point since later March.

Tom Steyer continued to improve as he still has a chance to qualify for the 3rd debate using his own money to buy ads which have translated into name recognition and movement in the polls. He improved from 137X to 121X. This is the highest he has been since April. He is now in 15th place overall jumping from 44th place two weeks ago.

Although there’s been talk of additional primary challenges to Trump like Joe Walsh (who’s not even in the odds yet), the interesting movement is with Republicans not likely to challenge Trump. This could be a hedge on Trump not finishing his term. For example, Mitt Romney was up from 148X to 137X, a 9 week high. John Kasich was up from 175X to 164X, a 5 week high. Ben Sasse was up from 229X to 191X. a 17 week high. Ted Cruz was up from 260X to 210X, a 17 week high.

Below is a list of candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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