Category Archives: Sasse 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Haley 2020, Harris 2020, Pence 2020, Romney 2020, Sanders 2020, Sasse 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds see a small drop; Sanders’ odds tank on news of heart attack; Pete Buttigieg’s odds see a sign of life, jump a slumping Kamala Harris; Clinton’s odd’s increase for fourth straight week

Trump’s Odds saw a small drop this week from 2.17X to 2.20X. This was the second drop in a row after the start of the impeachment inquiry. These are his lowest odds in nearly 6 months. His odds against the top 5 Democrats also decreased slightly from 44.9% to 44.7%, as their combined odds dropped by a lower amount than Trump’s (from 1.77X to 1.78X).

On the Democratic side, this was the first week in the past couple of months where Warren’s odds did not see a significant pickup. They rose from 3.50X to 3.45X, yet another new high.

The big mover for the Democrats was Bernie Sanders on news he was hospitalized because of a heart attack. His odds dropped from 14.3X to 17.9X, his lowest odds since end of January.

The biggest mover among the top candidates was Pete Buttigieg, whose odds showed signs of life for the first time in almost 4 months. He jumped from 31.1X to 26.6X. These are his highest odds in 6 weeks and allowed him to jump over a slumping Kamala Harris. Buttigieg is “flush with cash” and looking to make his mark in Iowa. Harris’ odds dropped from 26.4X to 27.9X, her lowest since July 2017.

For the second straight week, “non candidates” saw big jumps:

Hillary Clinton had her 4th straight week of jumps from 49.9X to 39.5X. Unlike after the first jump, where there was zero news on her potential candidacy, we are now starting to see some chatter like this article suggesting she may be the beneficiary of Sanders potentially leaving the race.

The other increases, much like last week, came from Republicans as a hedge to the potential impeachment:

Here are the candidates with a better than 200 to 1 chance as well as a trend of the leaders

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Haley 2020, Harris 2020, Kasich 2020, Pence 2020, Romney 2020, Ryan 2020, Sanders 2020, Sasse 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds see moderate drop on start of impeachment inquiry, giving life to odds of Republicans who are not running; Warren reaches another new high, putting space between her and other Dems; Clinton’s odds continue to improve on no news

Donald Trump’s odds dropped from 2.02X to 2.17X this week with the opening of the impeachment inquiry driven by the Ukraine whistle blower. That is about a 7% drop, but putting things in perspective, that is where he was in May of 2019. His odds against the top 5 Democrats declined from last week’s 48.5% to this week’s 44.7% as their combined odds improved from 1.90X to 1.75X.

Trump’s odds resulted in life for some Republican alternatives:

  • Mike Pence improved from 86.5X to 60.9X and he rose from 12th to 9th
  • Nikki Haley improved from 123X to 74X and she moved from 14th to 10th
  • Mitt Romney improved from 146X to 138X and he moved from 17th to 15th
  • John Kasich improved from 162X to 157X and he moved from 20th to 19th
  • Paul Ryan improved from 217X to 203X and he moved from 48th to 38th
  • Ben Sasse improved from 224X to 210X and he moved from 49th to 42nd

On the Democratic side, Elizabeth Warren continued to put distance between her and the field. Her odds reached another new Democratic high rising from 4.89X to 3.50X. 4 out of her 5 closest competitors saw significant decreases:

  • Biden a 10% drop from 6.88X to 7.66X a 9 week low
  • Sanders a 20% drop from 11.5X to 14.3X a 9 week low
  • Kamala Harris 13% drop from 23.1X to 26.4X, a 2+ year low
  • Pete Buttigieg 7% drop from 29.1X to 31.1X, a 6 months low

For the third straight week, Hillary Clinton’s odds have improved, this week from 53.6X to 49.9X. That ranks her as the 7th place Democrat. Oddly centrists and those to the far right are in agreement in that they would both love to see her run.

Here are the odds of candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot as well as the trend of the leaders:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Cruz 2020, Harris 2020, Kasich 2020, Romney 2020, Sasse 2020, Steyer 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds drop for a 3rd week in a row, still near highs; Warren, Biden, Steyer improve; Harris and Buttigieg continue to drop; Odds of Republican alternatives showing signs of life

Donald Trump’s Odds saw a drop for a third straight week moving from 1.93X to 1.98X. the 1.98X is his lowest in 5 weeks but is still close to his all time high of 1.90X achieved the beginning of August. His odds compared to the top 5 Democrats also decreased from 49.9% to 50.7%. This was purely a result of his drop. The top 5 Democrats saw a small decrease from 1.92X to 1.93X.

Elizabeth Warren continued to be the hottest name improving once again. Warren’s odds are now at 5.90X up from 6.14X. This is another new high for her. The Democratic high is held by Joe Biden at 5.19X in June. She has improved or been flat in 18 straight weeks.

Joe Biden saw a small improvement from 6.89X to 6.63X. This basically puts him back to where he was a few weeks ago after the 2nd debate.

Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg continued to drop. Harris declined from 11.8X to 13.4X. She has now declined for 6 straight weeks and is at her lowest point in 9 weeks.

Buttigieg declined from 21.7X to 24.4X. He has now declined in nine straight weeks and has reached his lowest point since later March.

Tom Steyer continued to improve as he still has a chance to qualify for the 3rd debate using his own money to buy ads which have translated into name recognition and movement in the polls. He improved from 137X to 121X. This is the highest he has been since April. He is now in 15th place overall jumping from 44th place two weeks ago.

Although there’s been talk of additional primary challenges to Trump like Joe Walsh (who’s not even in the odds yet), the interesting movement is with Republicans not likely to challenge Trump. This could be a hedge on Trump not finishing his term. For example, Mitt Romney was up from 148X to 137X, a 9 week high. John Kasich was up from 175X to 164X, a 5 week high. Ben Sasse was up from 229X to 191X. a 17 week high. Ted Cruz was up from 260X to 210X, a 17 week high.

Below is a list of candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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