Category Archives: Sanders 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Gabbard 2020, Harris 2020, JoeWalsh 2020, Sanders 2020, Steyer 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

Trump’s odds see a small decline for fourth straight week; Warren continues to rise setting another high; Yang jumps Buttigieg for 5th place; Joe Walsh makes debut on the odds

Donald Trump saw his fourth straight drop in a row this week with the odds moving from 1.98X to 2.01X. Those are his lowest odds in 9 weeks. He’s not far off his all time however of 1.90X which he was at prior to this streak. His odds vs. the top 5 Democrats dropped from 49.3% to 48.9%. The combined odds of the top 5 Democrats is now at 1.92X.

Elizabeth Warren continued to rise, increasing her odds from 5.90X to 5.65X, another new high. She has improved in 18 of the last 19 weeks. She was at 34X when this rise started in late April.

Bernie Sanders had a good week as well with his odds rising from 12.0X to 11.1X. He now has a 5 week winning streak. This is the highest he has been in 11 weeks. He basically has half the odds of Warren.

Andrew Yang jumped into the 5th spot this week partly as a result of his gains and partly due to Pete Buttigieg’s continued continued struggles. Yang’s odds jumped from 28.5X to 26.2X, his highest in 9 weeks. Yang has a hardcore following that has claimed media bias against the candidate including this week by CNN. Buttigieg’s odds dropped from 24.4X to 28.7X, his lowest since the end of March. He has now declined the last 10 weeks. His campaign claims they are ready for “phase three”.

A couple of names that didn’t make the third Democratic debate saw big drops. Tulsi Gabbard dropped from 45.7X to 66.9X, her lowest in over 2 years (since March 2017). Tom Steyer couldn’t buy his way into the debate (although he’s likely to do so for the next debate). His odds dropped from 120.9X to 146.9X. They are still above the 200+ odds he’s been at prior to three weeks ago.

Joe Walsh formally announced his attempt to take on Trump in the Republican primary last Sunday. He makes his debut in the odds this week at 169X and in 22nd place.

Here are the odds for all candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot

For updates follow me on Twitter

Views – 629
2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Harris 2020, Hickenlooper 2020, Sanders 2020, Steyer 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Big changes for the Dems as Warren’s odds overtake Biden’s; Trump sees a small drop, but still near his highs; Sanders recent hot streak puts him close to a declining Harris; Steyer’s odds skyrocket on ad spending and likelihood of qualifying for 3rd debate

For the second straight week, Trump’s odds saw a small decrease, this time from 1.91X to 1.93X. This is the lowest he’s been in 4 weeks, but not far from his all time high of 1.90X. The top 5 Democrats maintained their combined odds at 1.92X, meaning they moved slightly ahead of Trump.

There were big changes on the Democratic side as Elizabeth Warren passed Joe Biden for 2nd place overall. Warren’s odds continued to rocket, this time improving from 7.53X to 6.14X. The 6.14X is an all time high for her, and this is the first time that Warren has been in second place in 18 months. A Fox News poll showed her recent surge where she is now preferred by 20% of Democrats compared to just 4% in March.

Biden’s odds dropped from 6.62X to 6.89X, his lowest in 3 weeks. That same poll showed he is still the leader with him being preferred by 31%, flat to March.

Kamala Harris’ odds continued to drop this time from 8.9X to 11.8X. The drop wasn’t driven by any news other than potentially being flat in that same Fox News poll at 8% now and back in March.

Bernie Sanders’ odds continued seeing life post the second debate improving from 12.9X to 12.1X. This is his highest in 8 weeks and and he is now within striking distance of Harris.

Tom Steyer’s odds rocketed from 221X to 137X as his spending on ads has put him in position to qualify for the third Democratic debate (needs one more poll to qualify)

John Hickenlooper announced he is ending his campaign. He may run for the Senate. He becomes the third Democrat to drop out, leaving only 23!

Here are the current odds for those better than 200 to 1:

Follow our Twitter account for updates

Views – 548
2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Harris 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Donald Trump’s odds see small dip, still close to all time high; Warren continues to be hottest name while Sanders continue to benefit from debate; Harris and Buttigieg continue recent cold streak

Donald Trump’s odds saw a small dip from 1.90X to 1.91X. That is still the 2nd highest he has been after last week’s number. His odds against the top 5 Democrats remained basically 50%/50% as they also dropped from 1.90X to 1.92X.

Elizabeth Warren continued to be the hottest name. She improved from 7.98X to 7.53X. She has now improved in 15 of the last 16 weeks. This is another new high for Warren, and widens the formerly narrow gap she had over Kamala Harris. She is quickly making herself the alternative to Biden for the Democrats.

Bernie Sander’s continued to ride the wave after the second debate. He was up from 14.2X to 12.9X. The debate ended a downward trend for the Vermont Senator. This is his highest point in 6 weeks.

On the other end of the spectrum was Kamala Harris. Her odds dropped from 8.04X to 8.88X. She has now dropped for four straight weeks. She was at 5.57X and in 4th place the middle of July. She became the first Democrat to buy some air time in Iowa, a key early voting state.

Another candidate drifting down is Pete Buttigieg. He dropped from 18.9X to 20.9X, and has now dropped for 7 straight weeks. He was at 12.4 on 6/22. This is his lowest point since around mid March.

The one cold candidate that reversed his trend, at least for this week, is Beto O’ Rourke. After establishing an all time low last week of 83.5X (He started at 54.7X in August 2018), O’Rourke saw an increase to 65.6X, basically where he was just two weeks ago, prior to the debate. This may be a result of a higher profile with the shootings in El Paso. We’ll see next week.

Here is a list of all the candidates with better than 200 to 1 odds:

For updates follow me on Twitter

Views – 613