One week after overtaking Donald Trump for the lead, Joe Biden’s odds continued to improve. They reached a new high at 1.80X up from last week’s 1.90X. Trump’s odds dropped from 2.11X o 2.19X, his lowest since Thanksgiving of 2019. The implied odds between the two are now 54.8% for Biden to 45.2% for Trump. This is the widest gap for either since it became a two man race.
Here are the full odds:
On the VP side, Kamala Harris continued to improve and her odds reached almost 50% this week at 2.2X. The other big improvement came from Susan Rice who is reportedly one of the finalists.
Here are the full odds:
Only one state poll was released this past week: Michigan with Biden +12. This poll may be an outlier for the size of the gap, but not for the fact that Biden leads: Biden has lead all 19 polls in Michigan so far. This is not a good sign for Trump, as Michigan is a must win.
We are keeping our forecast at 330 Biden 208 Trump. Details by state below:
A bad week for Donald Trump finally resulted in Joe Biden overtaking him. With the focus on the George Floyd protests, Trump’s approval rating dropped to its lowest level since November 2019 (time of Ukraine call testimony). His odds dropped from 1.98X to 2.11X, his lowest since beginning of December. Biden’s odds improved from 2.06X to 1.90X, and all time high for him. Trump’s all time high was 1.59X back near the end of February. The implied odds head to head are now 52.6% Biden and 47.4% Trump.
Here are the full odds:
On the VP side, the likelihood Biden would pick an African American woman as his VP continued to increase. Kamala Harris reached a new high at 2.5X. Val Demings improved again from 7.7X to 5.9X. Susan Rice made her debut at 20.0X. The biggest drop came from the only non African American near the top in Elizabeth Warren. He odds worsened from 7.7X to 12.5X. Out of the top 6 candidates, 5 of them are African American women.
Here are the full odds:
Many polls came out this past week. Some of the more important ones:
Texas Trump +1: If this state turns for the Democrats the race is all but over. Still keeping this in Trump’s column
Ohio Biden +2: Biden gets 2 of the last 3 polls in that state but keeping it as a tossup for now
3 North Carolina polls: Biden +4, Biden +1, Trump +3. Keeping this as a tossup as well
Arizona Biden + 4 and Trump +1; Previous 3 polls to this one were for Biden. Keeping state for Biden for now
Wisconsin Biden +9 and tie; Both polls seem extreme. Previous 3 polls were for Biden but by a small margin. Keeping tossup for now but definitely leaning Biden.
Pennsylvania Trump +4; Previous 3 polls were Biden by an average of +7. Keeping this to Biden for now. Will move to tossup if next poll goes to Trump
Florida Biden +3. That is five in a row for Biden in Florida which is huge. Keeping to Biden for now.
We are keeping our forecast at 330 Biden 208 Trump. Details by state below:
The top 6 remained unchanged with Donald Trump having higher odds than the next five candidates combined. Donald Trump came in at 26.5% probability which was flat to last week. He was followed by Mike Pence, Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama, Cory Booker, and Tim Kaine. All five had a small decrease in odds as more names got added to the list.
Hillary Clinton was the biggest mover as she improved from 11th place to 8th place.
The big falls came from fellow Democrats Andrew Cuomo who went from 7th place to 10th place and Bernie Sanders who dropped from 9th place to 11th place.
Three additions came in at the same odds tied for 23rd place:
