Category Archives: Pence 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Pence 2020, Ryan 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Zuckerberg 2020

Updated Election Odds: Trump Steady at Top; Warren up on Senate Speech; Zuckerberg Shoots up the List; Ryan Falls a Spot

Donald Trump continued to be fairly steady at the top.  His payout has ranged between 2.4x and 2.5x in each of the last 8 weeks.  He has seen his probability go down a little bit. It is at its lowest in the last 5 weeks at 25.5%.  He peaked at 26.9% five weeks ago.

It looks like Elizabeth Warren made the most of her being silenced on the Senate floor.  She remains in 3rd overall , but her payout dropped from 10.7X the prior week to 9.8X.  Her probability is now at 6.6% but remains behind Mike Pence’s 7.4% for second place.

Paul Ryan took a little hit with his payout moving from 26.4X to 26.9X.  That allowed Bernie Sanders to hop over him for 7th place.

The big mover on the week, and of the last 3 weeks has been Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg.  Four weeks ago, Zuckerberg was in 45th place with a payout of 107.3X.  Reports started coming out about the possibility of him running.   He immediately shot up to 32nd place with a payout of 80X.  This week he was up once again now to 19th place with the payout decreasing to just 54.2X.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Clinton 2020, Obama 2020, Pence 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Updated Election Odds: Top 4 Continue to be Steady with Trump, Pence, Warren and Obama

 

There was very little change in the odds this week.  In fact the top four have been the same since I started tracking the new odds two weeks after the elections.

Donald Trump continues to lead at 26.5% and a payout of 2.4 to 1.  The payout has stabilized at 2.4, after starting out at 2.6.

The next three include Mike Pence at 8.8 to 1, Elizabeth Warren at 10.8 to 1, and Michelle Obama at 13.1 to 1.

Cory Booker has been a fairly consistent number 5 with a current payout of 23.7 to 1 and Hillary Clinton has ranged between 11th and her current 6th place at 25 to 1.

Here are the full odds:

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Views – 784

2020 Weekly Odds, Cortez Masto 2020, Kaine 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Obama 2020, Pence 2020, Rubio 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Updated Odds: Trump Continues Big Lead; Pence, Obama, and Kaine Improve; Catherine Cortez Masto Debuts in Odds

Trump continued to have a large enough lead to have better odds than the next five candidates combined.  Although the probability dropped from 27.2% to 25.5%, it was a result of the pool of candidates increasing.  The payout actually dropped from 2.6x to 2.5x.

Although there wasn’t any change in the order of the top 6, Mike Pence and Michelle Obama improved.  Pence, who is in 2nd place, saw payout drop from 9.5x last week to 8.3x.  Obama, who is in 4th, had her payout drop from 13.7x to 12.2x.  A sign that money is coming in for both.

Tim Kaine also improved.  He moved from 9th place to 7th place.  His payout dropped from 26.6x to 22.4x.

One new debut this week was Catherine Cortez Masto, the D Senator elect from Nevada (first female Latina Senator).  She makes an impressive debut in 12th place at 26x (based on odds from 3 sites).  That seems high for a relative unknown ahead of bigger names like Amy Klobuchar, Marco Rubio, and Bernie Sanders.

Here are the full odds:

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 788