Despite last week’s continuing saga of Donald Trump Jr./Russian meeting emails, Donald Trump’s odds remained steady for the 8th straight week at 3.0X. His odds are nearly three times that of his next opponent who happens to be his VP, Mike Pence.
Bernie Sanders had one of the biggest drops. He had been hot lately with his opposition to the Republican healthcare bills. His payout had steadily declined from 23.9X in the middle of May to last week’s 18.6X. That suddenly reversed this week to 19.4X. When asked this week about running in 2020, he said ‘I am not taking it off the table’ One reason for the drop could be a federal probe into a land deal his wife was involved in. He remains in 5th overall and 3rd as far as Democrats behind Warren and Obama.
Eight weeks ago, the hottest name was actor Dwayne Johnson. Following an appearance on the Tonight Show, he jumped from 41st place in the middle of May to 16th place in the span of two weeks. He has then held steady. This week a campaign committee was started on his behalf. His payout dropped from 42.7X to 31.0X. This was enough to move him from 21st to 13th place.
Donald Trump’s reelection odds took a big drop this week with the appointment of a special counsel. He is still the odds-on favorite having a higher probability than the next three candidates combined. The payout for putting money on trump increases from 3.1X to 3.3X and his probability dropped from 20.5% to 19.4%. It began at 30.0% shortly after his election.
Trump’s drop helped his closest competition in 2020. Mike Pence, who has been in 2nd place the entire time improves from 7.4% to 7.6%. His payout decreases from 8.6X to 8.3X, his lowest to date. There was increased talk among some Republicans of Pence being a better path forward to getting the Republican agenda through.
Elizabeth Warren, who has been in 3rd place and the Democratic leader in odds, also improved. Her odds improved from 6.1% to 6.5%. Her payout dropped from 10.4X to 9.8X.
Donald Trump’s odds continued to be fairly steady with a similar payout (2.6X) and probability (24.5%) as two weeks ago.
Mike Pence continues to be in second and improved a little bit. His payout is at 8.7X and his probability is at 7.3%.
Cory Booker continued to be in 6th place, but his payout dropped (odds improved) once again, this time from 22.2 to 21.6. He has nearly the same payout as Hillary Clinton (21.5) who is in 5th place.
The big riser continues to be Mark Zuckerberg. He was in 45th place with a payout of 107X just 6 weeks. His payout this week dropped from 53.8X to 43.8X and he is now in 20th place.
