Category Archives: Pence 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Oprah 2020, Pence 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds Continue to Drift Up; Pence at a New Low; Warren Ends Downward Trend; Oprah up to 7th Place

Donald Trump’s odds improved for the 7th straight week.  His payout has decreased from 3.33X to 3.25X.  It was at 3.45X seven weeks ago.  These are Trump’s best odds since the middle of August.

The same can’t be said for Trump’s VP, Mike Pence.  Although he remains a solid 2nd place, his payout increased from 9.8X to 9.9X.  This is another new low for Pence, and he has been down 4 of the last 5 weeks.

Elizabeth Warren showed some signs of life this week.  Although she’s been the leading Democrat since the beginning of this election cycle, her odds had reach a new low last week with a payout of 11.9X. She had peaked several times at 9.7X.  This week she was able to reverse the recent negative trend and improved her odds as her payout fell to 11.7X, the best odds in four weeks.

One of the hotter names the last five weeks has been Oprah Winfrey.  She once again improved, this time from 25.6X to 24.9X. This was enough to have her jump into 7th place overall.  She was in 28th place just six weeks ago.

Here are the full odds:

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Views – 759

2020 Weekly Odds, Harris 2020, Oprah 2020, Pence 2020, Trump 2020

Trump Sees a Small Improvement while Mike Pence Hits a New Low; Kamala Harris Continues Hot Streak; Oprah Closes in on Top 10

Donald Trump’s odds saw a small improvement this week with the payout declining from 3.45X to 3.42X.  That is his best showing since the beginning of September.  That is still well below his all time high when the payout was at only 2.41X the first week of January.

Mike Pence continues to be in second place but he took a big drop.  His payout increased from 9.2X to 9.8X, his lowest showing.  He reached his peak the last week of December at 8.0X.

Kamala Harris continued to be the hottest name, once again improving this time from 17.6X to 17.3X, a new high.  She is now comfortably in 4th place overall behind Warren and ahead of Sanders.

The hot name from last week was Oprah.  She moved up once again this time from 28.6X to 27.3X.  That was not enough to get her into the top 10 however, as she remained in 11th place.  Cory Booker is in 10th place, just ahead of her at 27.2X.

Below are the full odds:

 

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 646

2020 Weekly Odds, Cruz 2020, Haley 2020, Kasich 2020, Paul 2020, Pence 2020, Romney 2020, Rubio 2020, Ryan 2020, Scott 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Speculation about a GOP Primary Challenge Heats Up

Donald Trump continues to be the heavy favorite to win the 2020 elections, although his odds have dropped for the 5th straight week. This week, his payout has increased from 3.2X to 3.3X.  It was at 3.0X just 5 weeks ago.  His probability, at 19%, is still nearly 3 times the his next competitor, Mike Pence.

As his popularity has dropped, there has been speculation that Trump will get a challenge in the Primary.  Who could that challenge come from?  Here the other GOP candidates in the top 35:

Mike Pence: Although Mike Pence is unlikely to challenge Trump in a primary, he remains the 2nd highest from an odds perspective at 8.9X.  This basically signals that he will be the favorite for 2020 if Trump resigns, is impeached, or chooses not to run.  What’s interesting is his odds seem to move in the same direction as Trump’s: He seems to have peaked in the middle of June, which is Trump’s recent high.  At that time his payout was at 8.3X.

Paul Ryan: Ryan is currently 3rd among the Republicans and all the way down at 12th overall.  Like Pence, his success currently seems to hinge on Trump’s.  He peaked in early July at 25.5X and has been dropping  like Trump and Pence.  He is currently at 32.9X.

Marco Rubio: Rubio has been more openly critical than any of the Republicans above him.  Over the last two weeks he has moved from 20th place to 15th place.  He is currently at 41.2X.

Nikki Haley: Haley has probably done the best job in balancing being part of the administration (UN Ambassador) and keeping her distance from Trump.  She has improved over the last two weeks from 24th place to 21st place.  Her payout is currently at 45.5X.

John Kasich: Kasich has been the most consistent in being against some of Trump’s policies, like healthcare, while not attacking Trump in a personal manner.  At this point he would be the most likely to challenge Trump in a primary.  Kasich’s odds have moved more than anybody over the last two weeks with his payout moving from 59.6X to 48.9X.  He is currently in 25th place.

Ted Cruz: Cruz and Kasich were Trump’s last opponents in the primary, and would therefore be expected to be the favorites to be his primary opponents.  Although they are close in odds (Cruz is at 61.7X and in 28th place), Cruz has not moved much the last two weeks (He was in 29th place at 61.7X).

Mitt Romney: Romney has been mostly out of the public spotlight since his failed 2012 run.  His odds have showed little movement over the last year and he is currently in 30th place at 64.3X.

Tim Scott: Scott has just joined the leader board this week in 34th place at 67X.  The African-American GOP Senator came out this week saying Trump has lost his “moral authority”.

Rand Paul:  Paul has held steady.  he had been at 67X for 16 straight weeks until he dropped to 71X this week.  He is currently in 35th place.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 798