Category Archives: Pence 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Pence 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s odds skyrocket after William Barr’s summary while odds of 9 out of the next 10 competitors drop with biggest drop for Pence; Buttigieg continues to be hottest name doubling his odds; Biden sees drop on allegations of inappropriate touching

Donald Trump’s odds skyrocketed a week after William Barr’s summary of the Mueller report. The President took a “victory tour” and his odds jumped from 2.75X to 2.41X. These are his best odds in 7 months. He was at 2.33X in the middle of August.

The increase came at the expense of other candidates as 9 out of the next 10 top candidates dropped including Trump’s VP Mike Pence. Pence’s odds had the biggest drop, moving from 45.2X to 58.7X, marking a new low. Pence was as high as 8.0X back at the end of 2016. He is currently in 12th place.

The only candidate in the top 10 to improve was Pete Buttigieg. Buttigieg remains the hottest name in the field, having now improved in 8 straight weeks. This week his odds more than doubled moving from 40.5X to 19.0X. This was enough to move him to 6th place overall. He was in 30th place merely five weeks ago. The “millennial mayor” has become the early surprise of a crowded field.

The anticipation of Joe Biden’s candidacy over the last few weeks propelled his odds from 10.9X to 7.18X. Those odds saw a big drop this week on accusations of inappropriate touching. He is now at 7.96X dropping from 3rd place to 4th. With the accusations coming late in the week, it won’t be surprising to see a bigger drop in odds next week.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Cruz 2020, Harris 2020, ORourke 2020, Pence 2020, Romney 2020, Rubio 2020, Ryan 2020, Sasse 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized, Warren 2020

Donald Trump’s odds continue slow decline giving life to the odds of other Republicans; Beto stays hot and takes lead for the Democrats; Former Democratic favorite Warren continues decline, now 6th overall

Donald Trump’s odds continued to drop moving from 2.61X to 2.65X.  He has now dropped for five straight weeks and his odds are their lowest since June.

The recent drops appear to have given life to the odds of Republican alternatives, as a group of them jumped all of a sudden including:

  • Mike Pence from 25.7X to 23.5X
  • Paul Ryan from 83.2X to 78.2X
  • Mitt Romney from 93.3X to 80.8X
  • Marco Rubio from 96.4X to 94.1X
  • Scott Walker from 101.2X to 97.8X
  • Ted Cruz from 115.3X to 110.9X
  • Tom Cotton from 115.4X to 73.9X
  • Ben Sasse from 124.3X to 119.5X

Beto O’Rourke has been the hottest name in the betting odds, and that has seemed to translate to mainstream political pundits, as CNN ranks him second among Democrats for 2020. His odds improved again this time from 8.22X to 7.71 times.  That was enough to have him jump over Kamala Harris to become the odds favorite for Democrats.

The person that has seen the biggest drop recently has been Elizabeth Warren.  In a recent poll, she has dropped to 7th overall for the Democrats. Her odds dropped again this week from 18.1X to 20.1X.  That dropped her to 5th overall in odds for the Democrats.  She was in 2nd place among the Democrats and at 11.5X merely seven weeks ago.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Harris 2020, Obama 2020, Pence 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Reflection on First 18 Months of 2020 Election Cycle: How Have the Odds Shifted at the Top?

We are 18 months post the 2016 Election.  How have the odds at the top changed?

At the very top, Donald Trump has maintained a giant lead throughout.  He was at 2.6 to 1 in December, started dropping immediately and bottomed at 3.5 to 1 in September 2017, but has rebounded to his current 2.7X.  Although he has the most likely odds, they are still well under 50%.

Mike Pence was the number 2 candidate in December, most of those odds revolved around speculation of either Trump not finishing his term or not running in 2020.  As time has gone on, those odds have drifted down.  His odds have dropped from 9.5X in December to the current 15.5X. As a result he has dropped from 2nd place to the current 6th place.

Elizabeth Warren started as the Democratic favorite.  Much like 2016, Warren had many on the left believing it was her time while she gave no indication of running.  She started out at 11.1 to 1 odds.  She then stated she would run for the Senate and finish out her term if she wins. That would indicate no 2020 run.  Her odds dropped as a result to 14.9 to 1, but she still remains near the top in 5th place overall.

Michelle Obama began in 4th place at 13.7 to 1.  The former First Lady had a high favorability rating and name recognition.  She has consistently stated she is not running and as a result has dropped to 10th place overall and odds at 31.3X.

Cory Booker began in 5th place at 19.6 to 1. While most speculate that he will still run, he has been overshadowed as a top tier Democratic candidate by Sanders, Harris, and Biden.

Bernie Sanders was in 14th place in December at 32.1X.  Most believed he would not run in 2020, perhaps due to age or for talk of the Democrats looking for new blood at the top.  Instead, Sanders has managed to stay relevant and moved up to be the top contender as of right now for the Democratic nomination.  He has the experience and infrastructure of a campaign and has seen his odds improve to 11.4X, nearly tripling over the last three months.

Kamala Harris is the biggest mover of all.  The freshman Senator from CA did not have a national profile back in Dec 16.  She was in 15th place with odds of 34.8 to 1.  Over the past 18 months she has elevated her national profile and even reached second place overall back in March.  She is currently in 3rd place at 12.1X.

Joe Biden is the other big riser over the last 18 months.  Much like Sanders, Biden was discounted due to age and the Democrats wanting a fresh face for 2020. He was in 10th place in Dec 2017 at 26.8 to 1. Despite not holding an office, Biden has managed to keep his name in the news.  He has taken on President Trump at every opportunity and refuses to rule out running in 2020. He is currently in 4th place overall at 14.6X.

Here’s the top 5 then and now as well as the overall current leaderboard:

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