Donald Trump continues to be the heavy favorite to win the 2020 elections, although his odds have dropped for the 5th straight week. This week, his payout has increased from 3.2X to 3.3X.  It was at 3.0X just 5 weeks ago.  His probability, at 19%, is still nearly 3 times the his next competitor, Mike Pence.

As his popularity has dropped, there has been speculation that Trump will get a challenge in the Primary.  Who could that challenge come from?  Here the other GOP candidates in the top 35:

Mike Pence: Although Mike Pence is unlikely to challenge Trump in a primary, he remains the 2nd highest from an odds perspective at 8.9X.  This basically signals that he will be the favorite for 2020 if Trump resigns, is impeached, or chooses not to run.  What’s interesting is his odds seem to move in the same direction as Trump’s: He seems to have peaked in the middle of June, which is Trump’s recent high.  At that time his payout was at 8.3X.

Paul Ryan: Ryan is currently 3rd among the Republicans and all the way down at 12th overall.  Like Pence, his success currently seems to hinge on Trump’s.  He peaked in early July at 25.5X and has been dropping  like Trump and Pence.  He is currently at 32.9X.

Marco Rubio: Rubio has been more openly critical than any of the Republicans above him.  Over the last two weeks he has moved from 20th place to 15th place.  He is currently at 41.2X.

Nikki Haley: Haley has probably done the best job in balancing being part of the administration (UN Ambassador) and keeping her distance from Trump.  She has improved over the last two weeks from 24th place to 21st place.  Her payout is currently at 45.5X.

John Kasich: Kasich has been the most consistent in being against some of Trump’s policies, like healthcare, while not attacking Trump in a personal manner.  At this point he would be the most likely to challenge Trump in a primary.  Kasich’s odds have moved more than anybody over the last two weeks with his payout moving from 59.6X to 48.9X.  He is currently in 25th place.

Ted Cruz: Cruz and Kasich were Trump’s last opponents in the primary, and would therefore be expected to be the favorites to be his primary opponents.  Although they are close in odds (Cruz is at 61.7X and in 28th place), Cruz has not moved much the last two weeks (He was in 29th place at 61.7X).

Mitt Romney: Romney has been mostly out of the public spotlight since his failed 2012 run.  His odds have showed little movement over the last year and he is currently in 30th place at 64.3X.

Tim Scott: Scott has just joined the leader board this week in 34th place at 67X.  The African-American GOP Senator came out this week saying Trump has lost his “moral authority”.

Rand Paul:  Paul has held steady.  he had been at 67X for 16 straight weeks until he dropped to 71X this week.  He is currently in 35th place.

Here are the full odds:

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