Category Archives: ORourke 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, ORourke 2020, Trump 2020

Donald Trump’s Odds Lowest in 6 Months; O’Rourke Close to Taking 2nd Place; Biden “Most Qualified” for President; Bloomberg Meets with Iowa Democrats

Donald Trump’s odds dropped for the fourth straight week moving from 2.56X to 2.61X.  These are his lowest odds in 6 months.  He is still higher than his lowest odds of this cycle which were at 3.46X  in September 2017.

The hottest name continues to be Beto O’Rourke.  His odds rose once again, this time from 9.37X to 8.22X.  He is very close to passing Kamala Harris for second place overall.  Kamala Harris is at 7.86X, and has been improving each week, but not at the pace of O’Rourke.  O’Rourke landed a big Obama fundraiser this week. 

Joe Biden is “the most qualified person in the country to be president”……this according to Joe Biden. His odds jumped from 19.3X to 16.9X. This was enough to jump Elizabeth Warren for 4th place overall.  These are his highest odds in 3 months.

Michael Bloomberg continues to take small steps that signal he’s running.  This week, he met privately with top Iowa Democrats. His odds improved once again, this time from 32.6X to 30.2X.  That was enough to move him to 8th place overall.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Kerry 2020, Landrieu 2020, ORourke 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s odds decline for third straight week and are lowest since June; Beto mania continues with invitation to NH; Landrieu’s odds rise despite denials of running; Kerry not ruling a run out

Donald Trump’s odds declined for a third straight week coming in at 2.56X down from 2.53X.  The 2.56X are Trump’s worst odds in  25 weeks (beginning of June).  He is still more than three times the odds of the next closest candidate, Kamala Harris at 8.03X.

Enthusiasm for Beto O’Rourke  continues as Democrats from New Hampshire become the latest to invite him to the speak. His odds took another jump improving to 9.4X from 11.0X.  He only made his debut in the odds 15 weeks ago after his answer to the football players kneeling went viral.  That debut was in 15th place at 54.7X.

Former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu continues to say he’s not running and that he’s too much of a centrist.   His odds continue to improve however, coming in at 87.8X up from 97.9X, improving his standing from 47th place to 37th.  This is the highest he has been this cycle.

Former Democratic nominee John Kerry said he is thinking about running.  His odds improved from 131.4X to 104.2X, leading to a jump from 69th place to 50th place.  His comments made it seem like running would be dependent on whether others that he sees as qualified (Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg) run.

This wait and see strategy seems to be the attitude of dozens of other candidates on the Democratic side.  It will be interesting to see which candidates announce first and how it impacts others.  So far there are only two major Democratic candidates that have formally filed, and both are long shots: John Delaney announced in 2017 (currently 73rd place) and Richard Ojeda who announced a few weeks back (currently 29th place).

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Brown 2020, ORourke 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds Improve Despite Gains for the Democrats on Election Night; Sherrod Brown the Big Winner on Election Night and in the Odds; Beto’s Odds Skyrocket Despite Defeat while Warren’s Drop After her Reelection

There were many changes in the odds post the midterm elections.

Despite the Democratic gains in the House and many thinking the elections were more about Trump than the Republicans,  Donald Trump’s odds still improved from the prior week.  His odds rose from 2.50X to 2.43X.  That is the 3rd straight week of gains and his highest odds in 11 weeks.

Perhaps the biggest winner on Tuesday night was Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown.  The swing from Trump’s Ohio victory to Brown’s victory this year was an impressive 14.5%. His odds jumped from 78.9X to 54.7X and he moved from 33rd place to 15th place.

Elizabeth Warren’s odds dropped dramatically from 11.5X to 14.1X.  These are her worst odds in 15 weeks.  Warren won reelection to her second term rather easily and said it’s too early to decide about 2020.

Beto ORourke lost his Senate race to Ted Cruz on Tuesday but his odds skyrocketed from 21.4X to 11.2X.  That was enough to lift him to third place overall behind just Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.  His closer than expected loss on Tuesday fueled optimism from his admirers that he will run.

Here are the full odds:

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Views – 674