Beto O’Rourke finally made it official this week. The amount of coverage he received from all media whether political in nature or not, would suggest his candidacy will either be very successful (top 3 Democratic candidate) or a total flop (ala Jeb Bush being a top candidate and quickly crashing and burning in 2016). His odds improved from 10.1X to 9.2X. He stayed in 5th place overall.
Joe Biden is the last top candidate that has not announced his intentions of running. He continues to tease a run, and the direction his odds have moved the past four weeks indicate most believe he will run. He was up this week from 8.39X to 7.57X, allowing him to stay in fourth place. His odds were at 10.9X just one month ago.
Perhaps the hottest name not on everyone’s radar is Andrew Yang. The Democrat that is best known for his Universal Basic Income stance continues to get media coverage giving life to his unlikely candidacy. He jumped this week from 50.5X to 27.2X, moving from 13th place to 6th place. To give some perspective about the inroads he has made (at least from a betting perspective): He is currently ahead of big names like Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, and Cory Booker. He was first mentioned on this blog exactly one month ago when he jumped from 169X and 81st place to 127X and 63rd place.
Donald Trump’s Odds held steady for the week despite some bad headlines including a summit with North Korea that he cut short and public testimony by his former attorney Michael Cohen. His odds barely budged improving from 2.93X to 2.91X. He remained in the tight range of 2.90X to 2.96X for the seventh week in a row.
Beto O’Rourke continues to tease a Presidential run. His odds jumped from 12.8X to 9.5X, his best in 5 weeks. He remains in fifth place overall and has been as high as second place.
The biggest mover of the week was Andrew Yang. He nearly doubled his odds moving from 122.4X to 69.2X. That was enough to move him from 58th place to 17th place. The Democratic entrepreneur best known for his support for a Universal basic income (rebranded “the Freedom Dividend”) continues to make the rounds for publicity this week stopping by Fox News. Here’s a short profile from Axios of the 2020 candidate.
Donald Trump’s odds continued to drop moving from 2.61X to 2.65X. He has now dropped for five straight weeks and his odds are their lowest since June.
The recent drops appear to have given life to the odds of Republican alternatives, as a group of them jumped all of a sudden including:
Mike Pence from 25.7X to 23.5X
Paul Ryan from 83.2X to 78.2X
Mitt Romney from 93.3X to 80.8X
Marco Rubio from 96.4X to 94.1X
Scott Walker from 101.2X to 97.8X
Ted Cruz from 115.3X to 110.9X
Tom Cotton from 115.4X to 73.9X
Ben Sasse from 124.3X to 119.5X
Beto O’Rourke has been the hottest name in the betting odds, and that has seemed to translate to mainstream political pundits, as CNN ranks him second among Democrats for 2020. His odds improved again this time from 8.22X to 7.71 times. That was enough to have him jump over Kamala Harris to become the odds favorite for Democrats.
The person that has seen the biggest drop recently has been Elizabeth Warren. In a recent poll, she has dropped to 7th overall for the Democrats. Her odds dropped again this week from 18.1X to 20.1X. That dropped her to 5th overall in odds for the Democrats. She was in 2nd place among the Democrats and at 11.5X merely seven weeks ago.
