Category Archives: ORourke 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Yang 2020

Trump and Biden continue hot streak as they distance themselves from the field; Sanders continues losing ground in third place; Beto’s attempt at a reboot appears to be unsuccessful

The trend of Trump and Biden reaching new highs is in its sixth week now.

Donald Trunp’s odds improved from last week’s high of 2.10X to 2.04X this week. His odds have now improved the last 13 weeks (over 90 days). They were are at 2.93X at that time. That is an improvement of over 40% over that time.

Joe Biden’s streak isn’t as long since it wasn’t known 13 weeks ago if he would even run. In half the time (last 6 weeks), he has improved from 10.7X to 5.57X, which is over a 90% improvement. The majority of thinking now is it’s Joe Biden’s nomination to lose.

7 out of the next 10 competitors saw a decrease in odds including the third place candidate, Bernie Sanders. He has now dropped for five straight weeks (basically the same time period as Biden has been up). Sanders dropped this week from 7.69X to 8.35X. He was at 6.74X when the streak started. This is his lowest in 12 weeks. The challenge for Sanders is beyond his base his unfavorability is one of the worst (41% fav 48% unfav), although that is still better than the President’s (38%/57%)

The coldest name has been Beto O’Rourke. He dropped this week from 24.4X to 27.6X. Beto has dropped for 9 straight weeks. He was at 8.9X and in 5th place then. He dropped this week to 8th place behind Andrew Yang. Beto tried to reboot his campaign this week with a CNN townhall but hat was very poorly watched.

Below is the list of 64 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bullock 2020, de Blasio 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump reaches another high in odds despite polls showing top Dems ahead; Biden’s momentum continues doubling odds in 6 weeks; A hot Warren jumps a once hot Beto; De Blasio becomes 23rd Dem candidate

Donald Trump’s odds reached a new high this week at 2.10X up from last week’s previous high of 2.18X. He has now either been tied or achieved a new high the last 12 weeks. The odds have achieved these highs despite recent polls, including this one from Fox News, showing the top 3 Democrats would beat Trump head to head.

The hottest name continues to be Joe Biden. He achieved another new high improving from 6.11X to 5.84X. He has now improved the last 5 weeks, nearly doubling his odds since. He was at 10.7X just 6 weeks ago. Biden has been ramping up his campaign including making Philadelphia (with Pennsylvania a must win state) his headquarters.

The other name for the Democrats gaining momentum is Elizabeth Warren. She improved once again from 23.6X to 22.7X. She has now improved for four straight weeks and just passed Beto for 6th place. Her growth seems to be coming with progressives at the expense of Bernie Sanders. Sanders is still ahead of her in 3rd place with nearly 3 times the odds (7.69X).

What’s another week without more candidates for the Democrats. This week saw candidates #22 and 23. First came Montana Governor Steve Bullock. Bullock, whose credentials include being a Democratic Governor in a Red state, didn’t make much of a splash. His odds actually dropped from 141.4X to 145.8X. He is in 35th place overall.

Next came NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio. His announcement had a bigger impact in the odds. He rocketed from 166.9X to 124.3X moving him up from 45th to 21st place.

Below is the list of 64 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

For updates follow me on Twitter

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2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Harris 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Weld 2020

Trump’s odds see slight increase and reach another new high after release of redacted Mueller report; Buttigieg and Sanders remain hottest names, coming at the expense of Kamala Harris and Beto O’Rourke; Bill Weld makes his primary challenge of Trump official

There was very little impact to Donald Trump’s odds from the release of the redacted Mueller report, as they moved from 2.23X to 2.20X. This did set a new high for the second straight week.

The two hottest names on the Democratic side remained Bernie Sanders Pete Buttigieg.

Pete Buttigieg’s gains seem to be coming at the expense of Beto O’Rourke. Just five weeks ago, Buttigieg was in 10th place at 40.5X, he is now at 11.1X (13.0X last week) and just overtook O’Rourke for 5th place overall. Over that same span, Beto has dropped from 8.9X to the current 13.8X. Buttigieg finally made his official entry to the field last week and has been the “surprise of the Democratic field”.

Nine weeks ago Kamala Harris was the darling of the left at 6.4X, more than twice the odds of Bernie Sanders who was at 16.3X (behind Harris, Biden, and Beto). Sanders then made it official and raised $6 million in the next 24 hours. He has continued to improve his odds at the expense of Harris. His odds rose this week from 6.89X to 6.74X. Harris dropped from 7.66X to 8.46X. This week, Sanders made the unexpected move of going to Fox for a Townhall. It became the most watched townhall of this election season.

Bill Weld finally made his challenge of Trump for the Republican nomination official. He is a long-shot to say the least. His odds are at 140.5X which puts him in 38th place overall. To give some perspective, there are 5 other Republicans with higher odds ahead of him: Mike Pence (12th place 63X), Nikki Haley (14th place 82X), Ben Shapiro (20th place 105X), John Kasich (25th place at 117X, coincidentally, he was thought of as most likely to challenge Trump and his odds dropped this week from 105X), and Mitt Romney (27th place 125X).

Here are the full odds:

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