Category Archives: Obama 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Obama 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds continue in tight range; Bloomberg’s odds nearly double as he outspends opponents in Super Tuesday states; Warren continues to decline, gets passed by Buttigieg; Speculation by FoxNews leads to jump in Michelle Obama’s odds

Donald Trump’s odds saw a small improvement up from 2.28X to 2.27X. That is the second straight small increase. His odds have been in a range of 2.24X to 2.29X over the last 8 weeks. His odds against the top 5 Democrats ticked up a bit from 45.5% to 45.6% as their combined odds stayed flat at 1.90X.

The biggest move up was from Michael Bloomberg as he nearly double his odds from 27.7X to 14.7X. This is a brand new high for him and puts him in 6th place overall. Bloomberg’s money allows him not to have to gain momentum by winning early, delegate poor states like Iowa and New Hampshire. Instead he is focusing on outspending his opponents for Super Tuesdays.

Elizabeth Warren continued her nose dive, dropping this week from 7.32X to 9.53X. This is her lowest since the end of July. Among other things, she seems to have lost the momentum in Iowa to Pete Buttigieg. With this recent slip she was passed by Buttigieg who improved from 8.88X to 8.84X for third place overall. Her gap with Bernie Sanders has tightened. Sanders came in this week flat to last week at 10.5X.

Michelle Obama’s odds shot up as Fox News’ Tucker Carlson predicted she will be the Democratic nominee. Her odds this week were at 83X up from 123X the prior week. These are her highest odds since March and put her in 14th place overall (11th place for the Democrats)

Here are the odds for candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot and a trend of the leaders:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Harris 2020, Obama 2020, Pence 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Reflection on First 18 Months of 2020 Election Cycle: How Have the Odds Shifted at the Top?

We are 18 months post the 2016 Election.  How have the odds at the top changed?

At the very top, Donald Trump has maintained a giant lead throughout.  He was at 2.6 to 1 in December, started dropping immediately and bottomed at 3.5 to 1 in September 2017, but has rebounded to his current 2.7X.  Although he has the most likely odds, they are still well under 50%.

Mike Pence was the number 2 candidate in December, most of those odds revolved around speculation of either Trump not finishing his term or not running in 2020.  As time has gone on, those odds have drifted down.  His odds have dropped from 9.5X in December to the current 15.5X. As a result he has dropped from 2nd place to the current 6th place.

Elizabeth Warren started as the Democratic favorite.  Much like 2016, Warren had many on the left believing it was her time while she gave no indication of running.  She started out at 11.1 to 1 odds.  She then stated she would run for the Senate and finish out her term if she wins. That would indicate no 2020 run.  Her odds dropped as a result to 14.9 to 1, but she still remains near the top in 5th place overall.

Michelle Obama began in 4th place at 13.7 to 1.  The former First Lady had a high favorability rating and name recognition.  She has consistently stated she is not running and as a result has dropped to 10th place overall and odds at 31.3X.

Cory Booker began in 5th place at 19.6 to 1. While most speculate that he will still run, he has been overshadowed as a top tier Democratic candidate by Sanders, Harris, and Biden.

Bernie Sanders was in 14th place in December at 32.1X.  Most believed he would not run in 2020, perhaps due to age or for talk of the Democrats looking for new blood at the top.  Instead, Sanders has managed to stay relevant and moved up to be the top contender as of right now for the Democratic nomination.  He has the experience and infrastructure of a campaign and has seen his odds improve to 11.4X, nearly tripling over the last three months.

Kamala Harris is the biggest mover of all.  The freshman Senator from CA did not have a national profile back in Dec 16.  She was in 15th place with odds of 34.8 to 1.  Over the past 18 months she has elevated her national profile and even reached second place overall back in March.  She is currently in 3rd place at 12.1X.

Joe Biden is the other big riser over the last 18 months.  Much like Sanders, Biden was discounted due to age and the Democrats wanting a fresh face for 2020. He was in 10th place in Dec 2017 at 26.8 to 1. Despite not holding an office, Biden has managed to keep his name in the news.  He has taken on President Trump at every opportunity and refuses to rule out running in 2020. He is currently in 4th place overall at 14.6X.

Here’s the top 5 then and now as well as the overall current leaderboard:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Harris 2020, Obama 2020, Trump 2020, Zuckerberg 2020

Trump’s Odds Improve for Second Straight Week; Kamala Harris Remains Hottest Name; Michelle Obama Drops, Zuckerberg Improves

Donald Trump’s odds improved for the second week in a row as his payout dropped from 3.31X to 3.27X, which is where it was four weeks ago.  He has nearly identical probability of winning as the next four competitors combined.

The hottest name continues to be Kamala Harris.  She remains in 4th place but her payout dropped once again, this time from 14.6X to 14.3X.  She has widened her lead over Sanders and is catching up with Warren who is at 11.7X.  Both were profiled as part of the “Big Four” Women Democrats for 2020.

The two highest non politicians remain Michelle Obama and Mark Zuckerberg.  Obama is currently in 6th place but her payout has been increasing.  It is currently at 22.3X up from 21.6X the previous week.  She was at 18.2X ten weeks ago.

Zuckerberg on the other hand improved this week from a payout of 26.3X to 25.7X.  This is the lowest payout in 4 weeks and moves him from 8th place to 7th place.

Here are the full odds:

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