Category Archives: Klobuchar 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Harris 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds flat, near all time highs; Sanders declines for 9th straight week, remains in 3rd; Buttigieg and Harris make inroads with donors, regain momentum; Klobuchar up prior to possible breakout in debates

Donald Trump’s odds remained flat to last week at 2.03X just a shade lower than his all time high of 2.02X achieved two weeks ago. His odds have been in this area the past 5 weeks and are about 2.5 times more likely than his closest competitor Joe Biden, but slightly lower than the odds of the top five Democrats combined (1.98X) That will probably be the best comparison going forward.

Bernie Sanders’ odds continued to decline this week from 10.9X to 11.7X. This was the 9th straight week of declines. He was at 6.7X at the beginning of the streak. Amazingly, he has only dropped from 2nd place to 3rd place. Sanders is one of the more polarizing figures in the race, even among Democrats, as this analysis would suggest.

Unlike the last few weeks, the biggest beneficiary from Sanders’ drop was not Elizabeth Warren (who is just slightly behind him at 12.1X). Instead the beneficiaries were Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris. Both seem to have their path to the big Democratic donors, and that will give them an advantage in the long campaign. Buttigieg was up from 13.0X to 12.4X, and has been up the last three weeks. He is at his highest odds in 8 weeks. Harris was up from 14.1X to 13.5X. It reversed a trend of dropping or being flat the last 11 weeks.

So who will be the breakout of the upcoming debate. Some think it will be Amy Klobuchar. Her odds were up on the week from 76.5X to 67.9X. That was enough to lift her from 11th place to 10th place. Ironically, she jumped ahead of Cory Booker, the other person mentioned in the article above.

Below is a list of the top 59 candidates with better than 200-1 odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Bloomberg 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Trump 2020, Yang 2020

Trump’s odds stabilize post shutdown; “Tough Boss” Klobuchar’s odds improve as she makes it official; Bloomberg to spend $500 million to defeat Trump whether he runs or not; Yang’s universal income idea increases profile, ups odds

Donald Trump’s odds had a slight increase moving from 2.96X to 2.92X. His odds seem to have stabilized post government shutdown landing in a range of 2.90X to 2.96X the last five weeks. He was at 2.43X in mid November prior to the government shutdown talks.

Amy Klobuchar made it official this week as stories came out about her “tough boss” persona. It made for some interesting interviews where she seems to have embraced the reputation rather than back away from it. Her odds once again improved, this time from 24.6X to 18.5X. This was enough to move her to 6th place, ahead of one-time darling of the left Elizabeth Warren. This is a new high for the Democratic Senator from MN.

Michael Bloomberg is prepared to spend $500 million to defeat Trump whether he runs or not. That’s less than 1% of his reported net worth. His odds improved from 32.1X to 28.3X and he moved up from 12th place to 9th place.

Andrew Yang is a little known Democratic Candidate that seems to have found a way to up his profile. His idea to ensure every American has an income of at least $1,000 a month landed him in Time this week. The increase in publicity has helped him have the highest jump of anyone this week. His odds moved from 169.4X to 127X. That was enough to have him jump from 81st place to 63rd.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Gabbard 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized

Trump’s odds continue slow decline, Biden’s odds improve with win in Iowa Caucus poll, Tulsi Gabbard and Amy Klobuchar join the top 10

Donald Trump’s Odds continued their slow decline and are at their lowest since June.  This week marked his 5th straight week of declines moving from 2.65X to 2.67X.  This week had more than usual list of bad headlines for the President including large stock market declines, his Defense Secretary resigning, and a government shutdown over the Wall. His odds were at 2.43X on 11/10 when the declines began. His gap vs. second place (currently Beto O’ Rourke) is now at 2.9X, which is the lowest in over a year. 

Joe Biden won a poll of likely Democrat Iowa Caucus goers last week (32%) followed by Sanders (19%), O’Rourke (11%), Warren (8%), and Harris (5%).  His odds jumped from 16.8X to 15.5X.  These are his best odds in over three months. He remains 4th place overall.

Tulsi Gabbard continues to eye a White House run.  Her odds improved from 35.9X to 33.2X.  That was enough to move her into the top 10 into 9th place.  This is only her second visit into the top 10.  The last was 7 weeks ago and only lasted a week.  That came as reports spread about her approaching staffers about a run.

Amy Klobuchar’s public profile continues to grow, this week through an interview with the New Yorker. The odds moved from 36.0X to 33.3X.  That was enough to move her into the top 10 as well from 12th place. This is her first visit into the top 10.

Below are the full odds:

 

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