Category Archives: Klobuchar 2020

Updated Election Odds: Trump Continues Slow Decline; Clinton Resurfaces; Klobuchar in Iowa; Zuckerberg Continues Hot Streak

Donald Trump’s odds continued their slow decline, moving from 21.3% to 20.7%, his lowest since the election.  His payout remains at 3.0X. (3.03X compared to 2.95X last week).  He still has as much probability as the next four candidates.

Hillary Clinton resurfaced this week blaming her loss on the Russian hack and news of the FBI investigation.  She made it clear she is part of the “resistance”.  She remained in 5th place with a slight increase in odds.  Her payout drops from 22.4X to 22.0X.

Amy Klobuchar was in Iowa this week fueling speculation of a 2020 run.  She is in 15th place.  Her payout dropped from 36.2X to 34.3X.

The biggest winner of the week was Mark Zuckerberg.  He moves from 16th place to 13th place.  His payout drops from 37.8X to 33.9X.   Zuckerberg has been up in 9 of the last 12 weeks. He continues to move up since he made his debut in January in 50th place at a payout of 107X.

Here are the full odds:

Probability Payout
Donald Trump 20.7%                 3.0
Mike Pence 7.4%                 8.5
Elizabeth Warren 6.1%              10.3
Michelle Obama 4.2%              14.8
Hillary Clinton 2.9%              22.0
Cory Booker 2.8%              22.2
Bernie Sanders 2.7%              23.1
Paul Ryan 2.3%              27.3
Joe Biden 2.2%              28.5
Andrew Cuomo 2.1%              30.2
Kamala Harris 1.9%              32.2
Tim Kaine 1.9%              32.5
Mark Zuckerberg 1.9%              33.9
Julian Castro 1.9%              33.9
Amy Klobuchar 1.8%              34.3
Michael Bloomberg 1.7%              37.2
Sherrod Brown 1.6%              39.3
Kirsten Gillibrand 1.6%              40.0
Marco Rubio 1.5%              41.6
Bill de Blasio 1.5%              42.0
Jospeh P Kennedy 1.5%              42.0
Oprah Winfrey 1.5%              42.0
Nikki Haley 1.2%              52.2
Mark Cuban 1.2%              53.5
John Hickenlooper 1.2%              54.2
Ted Cruz 1.1%              56.3
Tulsi Gabbard 1.1%              59.0
John Kasich 1.1%              59.6
Mitt Romney 0.9%              67.0
Al Gore 0.9%              67.0
Rand Paul 0.9%              67.0
Al Franken 0.9%              71.7
Trey Gowdy 0.9%              72.4
Tom Cotton 0.8%              75.0
Chris Christie 0.8%              76.3
Martin OMalley 0.8%              80.0
Leonardo DiCaprio 0.8%              81.0
Scott Walker 0.8%              82.0
Condoleezza Rice 0.7%              84.0
Jeb Bush 0.7%              84.7
Ivanka Trump 0.7%              93.1
Ben Carson 0.7%              94.3
Terry McAuliffe 0.7%              94.3
Ben Sasse 0.6%            101.0
Tammy Duckworth 0.6%            101.0
George Clooney 0.6%            101.0
Evan McMullin 0.6%            101.0
Newt Gingrich 0.6%            101.0
Sarah Palin 0.6%            101.0
Rob Portman 0.6%            101.0
Jason Kander 0.6%            101.0
Dwayne Johnson 0.6%            101.0
Chelsea Clinton 0.6%            101.0
Gary Johnson 0.5%            126.0
Kanye West 0.5%            131.6
Jill Stein 0.3%            188.5

For updated please follow me at @2016ElectOdds

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Updated Odds: Trump Continues Big Lead; Pence, Obama, and Kaine Improve; Catherine Cortez Masto Debuts in Odds

Trump continued to have a large enough lead to have better odds than the next five candidates combined.  Although the probability dropped from 27.2% to 25.5%, it was a result of the pool of candidates increasing.  The payout actually dropped from 2.6x to 2.5x.

Although there wasn’t any change in the order of the top 6, Mike Pence and Michelle Obama improved.  Pence, who is in 2nd place, saw payout drop from 9.5x last week to 8.3x.  Obama, who is in 4th, had her payout drop from 13.7x to 12.2x.  A sign that money is coming in for both.

Tim Kaine also improved.  He moved from 9th place to 7th place.  His payout dropped from 26.6x to 22.4x.

One new debut this week was Catherine Cortez Masto, the D Senator elect from Nevada (first female Latina Senator).  She makes an impressive debut in 12th place at 26x (based on odds from 3 sites).  That seems high for a relative unknown ahead of bigger names like Amy Klobuchar, Marco Rubio, and Bernie Sanders.

Here are the full odds:

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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