Category Archives: Klobuchar 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds at nine week high on the back of increased impeachment driven fundraising; Is Buttigieg passing the momentum to Sanders; Warren’s slide continues; Klobuchar with sustained under the radar improvement

Donald Trump’s saw a fairly significant jump from 2.27X to 2.14X. Prior to this he had been in a range from 2.20X to 2.29X for the last nine weeks. This is the highest his odds have been since the end of September. His campaign seems to be taking advantage of fundraising from his base as a result of the continued impeachment activity. His odds against the top 5 Democrats improved from 45.6% to 47.4% as their combined odds dropped from 1.90X to 1.92X.

The hottest name for the Democrats from June to mid October was Elizabeth Warren. Pete Buttigieg then took over and the momentum. Could Bernie Sanders be next? Sanders saw his odds improve from 10.5X to 10.1X. Although that is not a big jump, it is significant when put in context. He was the only one of the top 5 Democrats to improve on the week and combined with Warren’s continued slipping, he was able to pass her into 4th place overall. Although the polls don’t quite reflect this reality, his positioning in early states may lead to momentum there that will carry to the national polls.

Elizabeth Warren’s odds kept slipping, this week from 9.5X to 10.2X. These are her lowest odds in nearly 6 months. Just four weeks ago, Warren was the leader for the Democrats. She has since fallen behind Biden, Buttigieg, and now Sanders.

One candidate that has been gaining consistent momentum under the radar is Amy Klobuchar. Her odds improved this week from 62.0X to 60.8X. She has improved in 8 of the last 9 weeks when she was at 141X when she was in 16th place overall. She is now in 11th place overall.

We are now down to only 18 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot (with only 11 of them officially in). Here is the list:

Here is a trend of the top candidates:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Gabbard 2020, Harris 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Pundit opinion of Warren and Biden debate performance differs from change in odds as Warren sees big drop and Biden jumps back into lead; Buttigieg’s momentum continues while Klobuchar sees biggest jump; Trump’s odds see small bump, first in nine weeks

Donald Trumps’ odds saw their first improvement in nine weeks, inching up from 2.29X to 2.28X. These odds are still slightly lower than two weeks ago at 2.27X and around 20% from the all time high of 1.90X achieved in August. His odds against the top 5 Democrats improved by a wider margin from 44.3% to 45.5%. The top 5 Democrats combined dropped from 1.82X to 1.90X as a result of a drop in Warren’s odds.

The fifth Democratic debate took place and there is a disagreement between what the pundits think and what the odds show when it comes to Warren and Biden. Many media outlets, like Vox , CNN, and NYT have Warren outperforming Biden. The odds on the other hand, show a sharp drop for Warren. Her odds decreased from 5.32X to 7.32X, over a 25% drop. This is her lowest since the middle of August. Although she had the biggest drop in this debate, Warren is still up the most since the beginning of the debates.

Joe Biden’s odds saw a small improvement, faring much better than what the media thought of him. His odds improved from 7.22X to 6.88X. This small increase along with Warren’s fall was enough to bump him back up to the favorite. These are his best odds since the middle of September.

There seems to be two big winners from the debate. Pete Buttigieg came out of the debate with his recent momentum intact. He improved from 10.3X to 8.9X, his second all time high in a row.

The biggest winner, at least from an improvement in odds perspective, was Amy Klobuchar. Her odds rose 50% from 94.6X to 62.8X. She jumped over Gabbard and Harris into 11th place overall.

Here are the big winner and losers from this debate as well as since the start of debate season:

Here are the odds of candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the top candidates:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Romney 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds flat to last week; Winners from 4th debate include Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Warren; Sanders “resets” campaign and gets AOC endorsement; Romney and Bloomberg with big improvements

Donald Trump’s odds stayed flat to last week at 2.24X, about 15% lower than the 1.90X high set beginning of August. His odds against the top 5 Democrats dropped to 43.9% from 44.8%. This as a result of the top 5 Democrats improving their combined odds from 1.81X to 1.75X.

The Democrats had their 4th debate and based on the odds here’s the big winners:

Here are how to odds moved this week for all who were involved in the debate:

Hillary Clinton’s streak of 9 straight weeks of improvements finally came to an end as she dropped from 25.2X to 31.5X. That is still the highest of any non candidate.

Mitt Romney saw another jump in odds as he stepped up his talk against Trump’s Syria policy. The odds moved from 98.0X to 80.6X, his highest since January.

Michael Bloomberg’s odds nearly doubled from 197.4X to 107.7X as reports came out he is looking into possibly entering if Biden falters. These are his highest odds since May.

Here are the odds of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the top candidates

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