Category Archives: Klobuchar 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Demings 2020, Harris 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Trump 2020

Biden widens lead; Trump tries to regain momentum as he restarts rallies in Tulsa; Kamala Harris’s VP odds continue to improve now over 50% while Klobuchar drops out; Biden has strong leads in important FL and MI; Moving WI to Biden widens electoral lead

For a second straight week, Joe Biden has widened his lead over Donald Trump and reached a new high. Biden’s odds improved from 1.80X to 1.76X, improving for a 4th straight week. His odds were at 2.26X prior to that streak. Biden’s odds moving up is a function of Donald Trump’s odds dropping. His odds have dropped the last four weeks from 1.91X to 2.19X last week to 2.26X this week, his lowest since December. The President will try to reverse that trend as he restarts his rallies in Tulsa tonight. The implied head to head advantage for Biden is now at 56.2%, up from last week’s 54.8%.

Here are the full odds:

Kamala Harris continues to improve at the top of the VP list. She is now not only the favorite, but the likely VP nominee as her odds move above 50% from 2.2X to 1.9X. The other big improvement came from Val Demings who has worked her way up from 25.0X when she made her debut on 5/16 to the current 5.3X. Big drops came from Atlanta mayor Bottoms whose odds went from 16.7X to 40.0X and Amy Klobuchar who withdrew from consideration and dropped from 100X to 200X. Prior to Floyd’s death, Klobuchar was considered a front-runner at 4.8X (second place).

Here are the full odds:

There was a long list of state polls released this week. Here are the one that impact some of the swing states:

  • Iowa Trump +1. Keeping Iowa in the Trunp column but last two polls suggest it’s more of a tossup
  • Michigan Biden +13, Biden +16, Biden +2. The +2 seems to be an outlier and at least for now Biden seems to be in control of Michigan
  • Florida Biden +11, Biden +7 consistent with recent polls of this very important state
  • Wisconsin Biden +4. Biden has led 3 of last 4 polls in this state with the fourth being a tie. Moving state to Biden.
  • Arizona Biden +1, tighter than other polls, but Biden still has 3 of the last 4. State could be close to a tossup.
  • North Carolina Biden +2, Trump +3. One for each shows why this state is a tossup
  • Pennsylvania Biden +3. Biden has 3 of the last 4 in this state with two of them by a wide margin (6 and 8)
  • New Hampshire Biden +7 keeping it in Biden’s column

With the move of Wisconsin to Biden, we are now forecasting 335 Biden 203 Trump. Details by state below:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Demings 2020, Harris 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Biden’s Odds reach a new high, narrows gap with Trump; Protests have large impact on VP odds as Bottoms makes debut while Klobuchar drops; Polls tighten in FL, MN, UT, MO

Donald Trump’s odds dropped from 1.91X to 1.98X, their lowest in 2020. They had been in a tight range the previous 8 weeks between 1.88X and 1.93X. As a result, Joe Biden’s odds were the mirror image improving from 2.26X to 2.06X. The 2.06X is an all time high for Biden. The previous high was in the middle of March at 2.12X. Trump’s edge in a one on one matchup is now down from 54.1% to 51.0%

Here are the full odds:

On the VP side, the demonstrations and unrest resulting from the death of George Floyd seem to be driving the odds. Minnesota’s Amy Klobuchar’s odds sank from 5.3X to 16.7X. On the other hand, Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms has upped her profile, and as a result, made her debut at 16.7X. Val Demings continued to improve jumping from last week’s 11.1X to this week’s 7.7X. Warren also saw a jump this week from 9.1X to 7.7X as multiple media outlets proclaimed her the front-runner. Kamala Harris, however, continued to be the odds favorite, improving her odds to 2.8X. She has led the odds every week since we started tracking them seven weeks ago.

Here are the full odds:

The polls didn’t change the overall forecast although some were tighter than expected. Trump has made Florida and Minnesota tighter than previous polls while Biden has made Utah and Missouri tighter. It’s unknown which of these are true tightenings vs. just outlier polls. Future polls will answer that. For now here are the polls:

  • Minnesota Biden +5 (keep to Biden)
  • Maryland Biden +24 (Keep to Biden)
  • Utah Trump +3 (Keep to Trump, tighter than expected after previous double digit leads)
  • New York Biden +25 (keep to Biden)
  • Missouri Trump +4 (Keep to Trump, tighter than expected)
  • Florida Biden +1 (tighter than expected, keep to Biden as previous polls were +6, +3, +4)

We are keeping our forecast at 330 Biden 208 Trump. Details by state below:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Harris 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Obama 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s odds lead over Biden at a 4-week low; Michigan and Pennsylvania polls continue to show Biden ahead; Obama’s odds for top spot jump as talk of her as a VP candidate heat up; Top two VP candidates remain Harris and Klobuchar

Trump’s odds dropped from 1.88X to 1.92X, his lowest odds in four weeks. The odds are finally starting to catch up to the recent drops in his favorability: dropped from 44.0% last week to 43.5% this week. They were at a high of 45.8% three weeks ago when they started dropping.

Joe Biden’s odds improved from 2.19X to 2.13X, his highest since the middle of March. His relative odds against Trump improved from 46.2% to 47.3%, a 4 week high.

The biggest move interestingly was in Michelle Obama’s odds as they improved from 113.2X to 94.2X, her highest since December 2019. There was numerous speculation of her being a possible VP candidate, including in an interview with Biden’s wife.

Here are the full odds:

The speculation is growing on the possible VP candidates for Biden. The odds would suggest there’s a 50% chance of either Harris or Klobuchar, and 50% of all other candidates.

Here are the full odds:

One the state polling side, Possible swing state polls released this week included:

  • Poll showing Tie in Fla
  • Poll showing Biden +4 in Fla
  • Poll showing Biden +3 in Fla
  • Poll showing Biden +8 in Mich
  • Poll showing Biden +8 in Penn
  • Poll showing Biden +6 in Penn
  • Poll showing Trump +5 in Tex

We’re still keeping Florida as a tossup. The polls reinforced the view on Mich and Penn going to Biden.

As a result projections remained the same as last week of 316 Biden to 222 Trump. Here are the details:

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