Category Archives: Kasich 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Haley 2020, Harris 2020, Kasich 2020, Pence 2020, Romney 2020, Ryan 2020, Sanders 2020, Sasse 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds see moderate drop on start of impeachment inquiry, giving life to odds of Republicans who are not running; Warren reaches another new high, putting space between her and other Dems; Clinton’s odds continue to improve on no news

Donald Trump’s odds dropped from 2.02X to 2.17X this week with the opening of the impeachment inquiry driven by the Ukraine whistle blower. That is about a 7% drop, but putting things in perspective, that is where he was in May of 2019. His odds against the top 5 Democrats declined from last week’s 48.5% to this week’s 44.7% as their combined odds improved from 1.90X to 1.75X.

Trump’s odds resulted in life for some Republican alternatives:

  • Mike Pence improved from 86.5X to 60.9X and he rose from 12th to 9th
  • Nikki Haley improved from 123X to 74X and she moved from 14th to 10th
  • Mitt Romney improved from 146X to 138X and he moved from 17th to 15th
  • John Kasich improved from 162X to 157X and he moved from 20th to 19th
  • Paul Ryan improved from 217X to 203X and he moved from 48th to 38th
  • Ben Sasse improved from 224X to 210X and he moved from 49th to 42nd

On the Democratic side, Elizabeth Warren continued to put distance between her and the field. Her odds reached another new Democratic high rising from 4.89X to 3.50X. 4 out of her 5 closest competitors saw significant decreases:

  • Biden a 10% drop from 6.88X to 7.66X a 9 week low
  • Sanders a 20% drop from 11.5X to 14.3X a 9 week low
  • Kamala Harris 13% drop from 23.1X to 26.4X, a 2+ year low
  • Pete Buttigieg 7% drop from 29.1X to 31.1X, a 6 months low

For the third straight week, Hillary Clinton’s odds have improved, this week from 53.6X to 49.9X. That ranks her as the 7th place Democrat. Oddly centrists and those to the far right are in agreement in that they would both love to see her run.

Here are the odds of candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot as well as the trend of the leaders:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Cruz 2020, Harris 2020, Kasich 2020, Romney 2020, Sasse 2020, Steyer 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds drop for a 3rd week in a row, still near highs; Warren, Biden, Steyer improve; Harris and Buttigieg continue to drop; Odds of Republican alternatives showing signs of life

Donald Trump’s Odds saw a drop for a third straight week moving from 1.93X to 1.98X. the 1.98X is his lowest in 5 weeks but is still close to his all time high of 1.90X achieved the beginning of August. His odds compared to the top 5 Democrats also decreased from 49.9% to 50.7%. This was purely a result of his drop. The top 5 Democrats saw a small decrease from 1.92X to 1.93X.

Elizabeth Warren continued to be the hottest name improving once again. Warren’s odds are now at 5.90X up from 6.14X. This is another new high for her. The Democratic high is held by Joe Biden at 5.19X in June. She has improved or been flat in 18 straight weeks.

Joe Biden saw a small improvement from 6.89X to 6.63X. This basically puts him back to where he was a few weeks ago after the 2nd debate.

Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg continued to drop. Harris declined from 11.8X to 13.4X. She has now declined for 6 straight weeks and is at her lowest point in 9 weeks.

Buttigieg declined from 21.7X to 24.4X. He has now declined in nine straight weeks and has reached his lowest point since later March.

Tom Steyer continued to improve as he still has a chance to qualify for the 3rd debate using his own money to buy ads which have translated into name recognition and movement in the polls. He improved from 137X to 121X. This is the highest he has been since April. He is now in 15th place overall jumping from 44th place two weeks ago.

Although there’s been talk of additional primary challenges to Trump like Joe Walsh (who’s not even in the odds yet), the interesting movement is with Republicans not likely to challenge Trump. This could be a hedge on Trump not finishing his term. For example, Mitt Romney was up from 148X to 137X, a 9 week high. John Kasich was up from 175X to 164X, a 5 week high. Ben Sasse was up from 229X to 191X. a 17 week high. Ted Cruz was up from 260X to 210X, a 17 week high.

Below is a list of candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Cruz 2020, Haley 2020, Kasich 2020, Paul 2020, Pence 2020, Romney 2020, Rubio 2020, Ryan 2020, Scott 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Speculation about a GOP Primary Challenge Heats Up

Donald Trump continues to be the heavy favorite to win the 2020 elections, although his odds have dropped for the 5th straight week. This week, his payout has increased from 3.2X to 3.3X.  It was at 3.0X just 5 weeks ago.  His probability, at 19%, is still nearly 3 times the his next competitor, Mike Pence.

As his popularity has dropped, there has been speculation that Trump will get a challenge in the Primary.  Who could that challenge come from?  Here the other GOP candidates in the top 35:

Mike Pence: Although Mike Pence is unlikely to challenge Trump in a primary, he remains the 2nd highest from an odds perspective at 8.9X.  This basically signals that he will be the favorite for 2020 if Trump resigns, is impeached, or chooses not to run.  What’s interesting is his odds seem to move in the same direction as Trump’s: He seems to have peaked in the middle of June, which is Trump’s recent high.  At that time his payout was at 8.3X.

Paul Ryan: Ryan is currently 3rd among the Republicans and all the way down at 12th overall.  Like Pence, his success currently seems to hinge on Trump’s.  He peaked in early July at 25.5X and has been dropping  like Trump and Pence.  He is currently at 32.9X.

Marco Rubio: Rubio has been more openly critical than any of the Republicans above him.  Over the last two weeks he has moved from 20th place to 15th place.  He is currently at 41.2X.

Nikki Haley: Haley has probably done the best job in balancing being part of the administration (UN Ambassador) and keeping her distance from Trump.  She has improved over the last two weeks from 24th place to 21st place.  Her payout is currently at 45.5X.

John Kasich: Kasich has been the most consistent in being against some of Trump’s policies, like healthcare, while not attacking Trump in a personal manner.  At this point he would be the most likely to challenge Trump in a primary.  Kasich’s odds have moved more than anybody over the last two weeks with his payout moving from 59.6X to 48.9X.  He is currently in 25th place.

Ted Cruz: Cruz and Kasich were Trump’s last opponents in the primary, and would therefore be expected to be the favorites to be his primary opponents.  Although they are close in odds (Cruz is at 61.7X and in 28th place), Cruz has not moved much the last two weeks (He was in 29th place at 61.7X).

Mitt Romney: Romney has been mostly out of the public spotlight since his failed 2012 run.  His odds have showed little movement over the last year and he is currently in 30th place at 64.3X.

Tim Scott: Scott has just joined the leader board this week in 34th place at 67X.  The African-American GOP Senator came out this week saying Trump has lost his “moral authority”.

Rand Paul:  Paul has held steady.  he had been at 67X for 16 straight weeks until he dropped to 71X this week.  He is currently in 35th place.

Here are the full odds:

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