Donald Trump continued to dominate the odds having as much probability as the next six candidates combined. The payoff for placing a bet on Trump remained the same at 2.4X.
Biggest Movers up:
Bernie Sanders: 11th place from 18th as payoff dropped from 33.9x to 28.3x
Nikki Haley: 31st place to 20th place as payoff dropped from 77.3X to 40.7X
Biggest Movers down:
Tim Kaine: 13th place from 8th place as payoff increased from 22.6x to 29.6x
Joe Biden: 14th place from 10th place as payoff increased from 23.1x to 30.0x
Marco Rubio: 21st place from 15th place as payoff increased from 30.0x to 41.4x
Debuts:
Sherrod Brown: D Senator from OH at 16th place with 34.0X
Tulsi Gabbard: D Rep from HI at 22nd place with 51.0X
Leonardo DiCaprio: Actor 36th place with 81.0X
Sarah Palin: former R Gov of AK 40th place with 101X
Trump continued to have a large enough lead to have better odds than the next five candidates combined. Although the probability dropped from 27.2% to 25.5%, it was a result of the pool of candidates increasing. The payout actually dropped from 2.6x to 2.5x.
Although there wasn’t any change in the order of the top 6, Mike Pence and Michelle Obama improved. Pence, who is in 2nd place, saw payout drop from 9.5x last week to 8.3x. Obama, who is in 4th, had her payout drop from 13.7x to 12.2x. A sign that money is coming in for both.
Tim Kaine also improved. He moved from 9th place to 7th place. His payout dropped from 26.6x to 22.4x.
One new debut this week was Catherine Cortez Masto, the D Senator elect from Nevada (first female Latina Senator). She makes an impressive debut in 12th place at 26x (based on odds from 3 sites). That seems high for a relative unknown ahead of bigger names like Amy Klobuchar, Marco Rubio, and Bernie Sanders.
The top 6 remained unchanged with Donald Trump having higher odds than the next five candidates combined. Donald Trump came in at 26.5% probability which was flat to last week. He was followed by Mike Pence, Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama, Cory Booker, and Tim Kaine. All five had a small decrease in odds as more names got added to the list.
Hillary Clinton was the biggest mover as she improved from 11th place to 8th place.
The big falls came from fellow Democrats Andrew Cuomo who went from 7th place to 10th place and Bernie Sanders who dropped from 9th place to 11th place.
Three additions came in at the same odds tied for 23rd place:
