Category Archives: Johnson 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Clinton 2020, Johnson 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Rebound with International Trip; Biden’s Odds Spike at Clinton’s Expense; Dwayne Johnson Continues Hot Streak

Last week Trump’s odd saw a big drop which was a result of the appointment of a Russia special prosecutor.  The odds rebounded this week as the President made his international debut.  Trump’s probability improved from 19.4% to 20.7% which is back to where it was at the beginning of the month.  His payout dropped from 3.3X to 3.0X, again where it was at the beginning of the month.

The big mover for the Democrats was Joe Biden.  The former VP jumped from 8th place to 5th place as his schedule “fueled 2020 speculation”. His average payout dropped from 25.7X to 21.5X.  This is the highest he has been since the odds started post election.  At that time he was in 15th place.

A large part of Biden’s jump came at the expense of Hillary Clinton.  Clinton increased her profile a few weeks back when she was in 5th place.  Since then she has dropped to 6th place last week and to 8th place this week.  Her payout has increased from an average of 22.8X to 24.4X. That is the highest her payout has been since January when it was at 25.0X.

The hottest name of the last two weeks has been former wrestler and current actor Dwayne Johnson.  Two weeks ago he was in 41st place.  His Tonight Show appearance fueled speculation last week and he jumped to 24th place.  This continued this week as he jumped to 16th place.  $1 bet on him a few weeks back would have resulted in $100 had he won.  That is now down to just 36.4X this week,  from last week’s 53.2X.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Johnson 2020, Pence 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Updated Election Odds: Trump’s Odds Take a Hit with Special Counsel; Pence and Warren Benefit; Dwayne Johnson with Big Jump

Donald Trump’s reelection odds took a big drop this week with the appointment of a special counsel.  He is still the odds-on favorite having a higher probability than the next three candidates combined.  The payout for putting money on trump increases from 3.1X to 3.3X and his probability dropped from 20.5% to 19.4%.  It began at 30.0% shortly after his election.

Trump’s drop helped his closest competition in 2020.  Mike Pence, who has been in 2nd place the entire time improves from 7.4% to 7.6%.  His payout decreases from 8.6X to 8.3X, his lowest to date.  There was increased talk among some Republicans of Pence being a better path forward to getting the Republican agenda through.

Elizabeth Warren, who has been in 3rd place and the Democratic leader in odds, also improved.  Her odds improved from 6.1% to 6.5%.  Her payout dropped from 10.4X to 9.8X.

The biggest mover of the week was wrestler/actor Dwayne Johnson. He would not rule out running in his appearance on the Tonight Show and a PPP Poll showed him leading Trump head to head 42 to 37.  He moved from 41st place last week with a payout of 90X to 24th place with a payout of 53.2X.  He was as high as 113.5X in the middle of January.

Here are the full odds:

 

For updated please follow me at @2016ElectOdds

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