Donald Trump’s odds stayed flat to last week coming in at 3.28X. He remains more than three times more likely to win the presidency as any candidate, although his odds have fallen over the last year. At this time last year, Trump was at 2.58X, or 21% more likely.
The big mover on the week was once again Kirsten Gillibrand. The Senator from NY called for the President to resign this week and the President bit the bait and took her on. That increased her profile once again and likewise her odds. This week she improved from 45.8X to 36.4X. That moved her from 18th place to 12th place.
Marco Rubio stated he will not support the tax bill without changes to the child credit. Many see this as a play to improve his odds for 2020. His odds improved from 47.1X to 42.6X. That moved him from 20th place to 19th place (4th among Republicans).
Donald Trump’s odds once again saw very little movement with the payout moving from 3.29X to 3.28X. He has been in a very tight range the last 8 weeks (3.25X to 3.35X). He remains more than three times more likely to win than the next challenger.
Mark Zuckerberg saw a slight improvement for the third straight week. He moved this week from 25.5X to 24.8X which was enough for him to move into 7th place overall. He was at 26.3X just four weeks ago.
The big news on the week was Al Franken’s resignation among sexual assault accusations. His payout increased from 49X to 58.4X. That was enough to drop him from 21st place to 28th place. He will likely drop more next week as not all sites have updated their odds. Franken was as high as 18th place just 5 weeks ago.
The straw that finally broke the camel’s back for Franken may have been fellow Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand calling for his resignation. Her odds improved with the increase in profile. Her payout decreased from 47.7X to 45.8X, which pushed her from 19th place to 18th place. She seems to be making sexual assault the focus of her career.
Donald Trump continued to have over a 1 in 4 chance of winning at 25.6%. The payout for betting on Trump dropped once again to 2.4x from 2.5x last week and 2.6 the week prior.
The biggest mover was Kirsten Gillibrand. The Democratic Senator from NY moved from 18th place to 12th place as her odds increased from 1.8% to 2.4%. Her payout plummeted from 34.3x to 26.0x. She was ranked #4 in this recent list of potential Democratic candidates.
Paul Ryan has been making steady progress as well. He started in 12th place in the initial post elections list. He moved all the way up to 6th place last week and entered the top 5 this week. His probability is now at 3.2% and his payout is down to 19.8X.
