Category Archives: Cruz 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Clinton 2020, Cruz 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020

After 8 Weeks of Decline, Trump’s Odds Stabilize; Kamala Harris Jumps to 4th; Cruz Continues Hot Streak; Clinton Says She Isn’t Running, Odds Decline

After dropping for eight straight weeks, Donald Trump’s odds improved this week.  This comes at a time where he appears to be reaching across the aisle to work with Democrats on things like DACA, which may help him with independents but has angered his base. Payout for betting on Trump decreased from 3.46X to 3.45X.  The payout was at 2.98X before the decline started. Trump is the odds on favorite having higher odds than the next three competitors combined.

Kamala Harris continues to be the hottest name on the left.  She is beginning to be seen as potentially the top candidate for the Democrats  Her odds reflected this as she jumped over both Michelle Obama and Bernie Sanders into 4th place overall.  Her payout dropped from 21.0X to 17.7X.  The payout was over 30X at the beginning of July.

The hot name the past few weeks on the right has been Ted Cruz.  Cruz had an odd week as the story that caught the biggest headlines was his twitter account liking a porn tweet.  What might have helped his odds however is Trump’s possible pivot to the middle.  This created policy differences between Cruz and Trump in issues that are important to the Republican base such as immigration.  He moves from 29th place to 26th place.  His payout has dropped from 54.7X to 48.9X.  That is the highest odds he has been at this cycle.

Hillary Clinton had the biggest drop of the week as she embarked on her book tour.  In an interview last Sunday she stated “I am done with being a candidate” and she repeated that theme in interviews throughout the week.  She dropped from 11th place to 12th place with her payout increasing from 30.4X to 34.9X.  This is the lowest she has been.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 632

2020 Weekly Odds, Cruz 2020, JosephKennedy2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Sanders Jumps into 4th Place; Kennedy Reaches New High; Cruz Highest in 7 Weeks

Donald Trump’s odds saw a small drop for the 7th straight week as the payout increased from 3.35X to 3.39X.  The probability dropped to 17.7%, but is still more than the next three candidates combined.

Bernie Sanders’ odds continued to rise.  His payout decreased from 18.2X to 17.7X.  That was enough for him to jump into 4th over Michelle Obama.  This is the highest he has been this cycle.  He was asked this week about 2020 and replied with “People are sick and tired of it” (the never ending election cycle)

Joseph Kennedy reached a new high with his payout dropping from 40.1X to 38.3X.  That was enough for him to rise to 13th place.  He was in 19th place merely three weeks ago.

Ted Cruz’s odds improved with his payout decreasing from 61.7X to 56.3X.  That is the best they have been in 7 weeks.  He is currently in 30th place (Lower than prior weeks simply because more names have been added to the board)

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 654

2020 Weekly Odds, Cruz 2020, Haley 2020, Kasich 2020, Paul 2020, Pence 2020, Romney 2020, Rubio 2020, Ryan 2020, Scott 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Speculation about a GOP Primary Challenge Heats Up

Donald Trump continues to be the heavy favorite to win the 2020 elections, although his odds have dropped for the 5th straight week. This week, his payout has increased from 3.2X to 3.3X.  It was at 3.0X just 5 weeks ago.  His probability, at 19%, is still nearly 3 times the his next competitor, Mike Pence.

As his popularity has dropped, there has been speculation that Trump will get a challenge in the Primary.  Who could that challenge come from?  Here the other GOP candidates in the top 35:

Mike Pence: Although Mike Pence is unlikely to challenge Trump in a primary, he remains the 2nd highest from an odds perspective at 8.9X.  This basically signals that he will be the favorite for 2020 if Trump resigns, is impeached, or chooses not to run.  What’s interesting is his odds seem to move in the same direction as Trump’s: He seems to have peaked in the middle of June, which is Trump’s recent high.  At that time his payout was at 8.3X.

Paul Ryan: Ryan is currently 3rd among the Republicans and all the way down at 12th overall.  Like Pence, his success currently seems to hinge on Trump’s.  He peaked in early July at 25.5X and has been dropping  like Trump and Pence.  He is currently at 32.9X.

Marco Rubio: Rubio has been more openly critical than any of the Republicans above him.  Over the last two weeks he has moved from 20th place to 15th place.  He is currently at 41.2X.

Nikki Haley: Haley has probably done the best job in balancing being part of the administration (UN Ambassador) and keeping her distance from Trump.  She has improved over the last two weeks from 24th place to 21st place.  Her payout is currently at 45.5X.

John Kasich: Kasich has been the most consistent in being against some of Trump’s policies, like healthcare, while not attacking Trump in a personal manner.  At this point he would be the most likely to challenge Trump in a primary.  Kasich’s odds have moved more than anybody over the last two weeks with his payout moving from 59.6X to 48.9X.  He is currently in 25th place.

Ted Cruz: Cruz and Kasich were Trump’s last opponents in the primary, and would therefore be expected to be the favorites to be his primary opponents.  Although they are close in odds (Cruz is at 61.7X and in 28th place), Cruz has not moved much the last two weeks (He was in 29th place at 61.7X).

Mitt Romney: Romney has been mostly out of the public spotlight since his failed 2012 run.  His odds have showed little movement over the last year and he is currently in 30th place at 64.3X.

Tim Scott: Scott has just joined the leader board this week in 34th place at 67X.  The African-American GOP Senator came out this week saying Trump has lost his “moral authority”.

Rand Paul:  Paul has held steady.  he had been at 67X for 16 straight weeks until he dropped to 71X this week.  He is currently in 35th place.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 696