Category Archives: Clinton 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Clinton 2020, Johnson 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Clinton’s Book Publicity Hurting her Odds; Speculation about “The Rock” Continues; Klobuchar Increases Profile

Trump’s odds continued their slow decline as his payout increased from 3.39X to 3.46X.  This is the 8th straight week of increases.  His payout 8 weeks ago stood at 2.98X.  The probability of Trump being reelected is now at 17.5%, still higher than the next three candidates combined.

Hillary Clinton continued to be in the headlines as publicity of her book increased.  What also increased is calls from some Democrats to move on.  That has taken a toll on her odds the last few weeks.  Her payout is now at 30.4X down from 24.6X just 6 weeks ago and from its peak of 20.6X in March. The odds suggest a probability of just 2%.

One person who has momentum from Democratic voters is Amy Klobuchar.  Her profile continues to increase as she denies she has any interest in running.  Her payout is now down to 41.2X and she is in 18th place up from last week’s 20th place.

Speculation of Dwayne Johnson running continues every week since the topic first came up on the Tonight Show back in May.  The latest is from former colleague/wrestler Chris Jericho saying he has “no doubt’ that Johnson will run.  His payout decreased this week from 27.6X to 26.6X and he is currently in 10th place ahead of the likes of Hillary Clinton and Paul Ryan.

Here are the full odds:

 

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 694

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Obama 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Donald Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Who are the Top Democratic Candidates

For the 6th straight week, Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline.  This time from 3.31X to 3.35X.  Donald Trump’s odds were at 2.98X on 7/15. That is a 13% increase in payout since.  He is still more than 2 1/2 times more likely than the number two candidate, Mike Pence.

Other than Trump’s small drop, there was very little change. I’ll use this lack of 2020 news week as an opportunity to talk about who the top Democratic candidates are. (We profiled the Republicans last week)

The top 2020 Democratic candidate from day one has been Elizabeth Warren.  Her odds started at 11.1X and are currently at 10.6X.  She peaked at 9.7X at the beginning of June.

Michelle Obama has been the consistent #2 Democrat since the elections.  Her odds have declined over time however.  She started at 13.7X  and reached 12.1X a couple of weeks later.  Her odds have drifted down however, as she has been absent from the public eye.  She is currently at 17.6X.

Bernie Sanders is currently the third leading Democrat.  He started the cycle in 8th place overall after finishing second in the 2016 Democratic Primary.  He then dropped very quickly to 18th place by the end of 2016.  Since then he has worked his way up from a 33.9X payout to the current 18.2X which puts him in 5th overall.

Kamala Harris seems to have the most momentum in the Democratic party.  She started out in 16th place overall and was in 18th place at the beginning of the year.  Since then she has exploded and is currently in 4th place among the Democrats and 6th place overall.  Her payout was at 36.4X in January and is currently at 20.4X.

Some other top Democrats:

  • Joe Biden at 5th place in June (20.9X) and is now 8th place overall at 25.7X
  • Cory Booker started the cycle at 5th place (19.6X) and is now in 9th place at 26.5X
  • Hillary Clinton was in 5th place from the end of January to the beginning of May. peaking at 20.6X in the middle of March.  She is currently in 11th place at 28.0X.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 737

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Clinton 2020, Johnson 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Rebound with International Trip; Biden’s Odds Spike at Clinton’s Expense; Dwayne Johnson Continues Hot Streak

Last week Trump’s odd saw a big drop which was a result of the appointment of a Russia special prosecutor.  The odds rebounded this week as the President made his international debut.  Trump’s probability improved from 19.4% to 20.7% which is back to where it was at the beginning of the month.  His payout dropped from 3.3X to 3.0X, again where it was at the beginning of the month.

The big mover for the Democrats was Joe Biden.  The former VP jumped from 8th place to 5th place as his schedule “fueled 2020 speculation”. His average payout dropped from 25.7X to 21.5X.  This is the highest he has been since the odds started post election.  At that time he was in 15th place.

A large part of Biden’s jump came at the expense of Hillary Clinton.  Clinton increased her profile a few weeks back when she was in 5th place.  Since then she has dropped to 6th place last week and to 8th place this week.  Her payout has increased from an average of 22.8X to 24.4X. That is the highest her payout has been since January when it was at 25.0X.

The hottest name of the last two weeks has been former wrestler and current actor Dwayne Johnson.  Two weeks ago he was in 41st place.  His Tonight Show appearance fueled speculation last week and he jumped to 24th place.  This continued this week as he jumped to 16th place.  $1 bet on him a few weeks back would have resulted in $100 had he won.  That is now down to just 36.4X this week,  from last week’s 53.2X.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 732