Category Archives: Clinton 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Brown 2020, Castro 2020, Clinton 2020, Trump 2020

Trump sees small dip in odds; Democrats split on whether Clinton should run again; Sherrod Brown’s post election momentum continues; Julian Castro not wasting any timing in courting donors and staff

Donald Trump’s Odds dipped slightly this past week from 2.43X to 2.49X.  That is in line with his average over the last three months of 2.50X.  He remains more than three times as likely to get elected as his next closest competitor.

A former Hillary Clinton adviser wrote a WSJ op-ed that Clinton will run again in 2020.  That possibility seems to have split Democrats, as pleads for her not to run also sprung up. The mere possibility of another run did help her odds jump from 58.8X to 51.9X .  This moved her from 18th place to 15th.  This is the highest position she’s been in since late January.

We mentioned last week the big winner coming out of the election (aside from O’Rourke’s crazy jump in odds following his loss) appeared to be OH Senator Sherrod Brown.  His hot streak continued as his odds improved once again from 54.7X to 43.5X.  He is now in 13th place overall, and his betting odds are the highest they’ve been since September ’17.

Julian Castro is wasting no time in his preparations for a 2020 run, as he began courting both donors and staff. His odds jumped from 84.3X to 71.7X moving him from 30th place to 23rd, his highest since August.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Clinton 2020, Franken 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Trump Continues to Edge Higher; Sanders Strong After NH Poll; Clinton Improves Despite Saying She Will not Run; Franken up into Top 25

In what looks like a replay of the 2016 election, three of the larger improvements  this week were from Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Hillary Clinton.

Trump’s odds saw another improvement, this time with the payout dropping from last week’s 3.38X to this week’s 3.33X.  These are the best odds he has had in 9 weeks.

Bernie Sanders saw his odds improve to a new high as his payout dropped from 18.3X to 17.7X.  Although a new NH poll showed he is currently the favorite for the Democratic nomination from that state, he is  still behind Elizabeth Warren (11.9X) and Kamala Harris (16.4X) as far as odds for the nomination.

Hillary Clinton’s odd’s improved despite her saying she will not run again.The payout improved from 35.5X to 34.0X, her highest in 6 weeks. This moved her up one spot from 13th place to 12th place.

Al Franken had the biggest move for the week as his payout improved from 57.1X to 49.5X.  This was enough to move him from 30th place to 23rd place.  That is the highest he has been at this entire cycle.  Franken made news this week as he grilled Jeff Sessions in the Senate hearings.

Here is the full list of odds:

 

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

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2020 Weekly Odds, Clinton 2020, Cruz 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020

After 8 Weeks of Decline, Trump’s Odds Stabilize; Kamala Harris Jumps to 4th; Cruz Continues Hot Streak; Clinton Says She Isn’t Running, Odds Decline

After dropping for eight straight weeks, Donald Trump’s odds improved this week.  This comes at a time where he appears to be reaching across the aisle to work with Democrats on things like DACA, which may help him with independents but has angered his base. Payout for betting on Trump decreased from 3.46X to 3.45X.  The payout was at 2.98X before the decline started. Trump is the odds on favorite having higher odds than the next three competitors combined.

Kamala Harris continues to be the hottest name on the left.  She is beginning to be seen as potentially the top candidate for the Democrats  Her odds reflected this as she jumped over both Michelle Obama and Bernie Sanders into 4th place overall.  Her payout dropped from 21.0X to 17.7X.  The payout was over 30X at the beginning of July.

The hot name the past few weeks on the right has been Ted Cruz.  Cruz had an odd week as the story that caught the biggest headlines was his twitter account liking a porn tweet.  What might have helped his odds however is Trump’s possible pivot to the middle.  This created policy differences between Cruz and Trump in issues that are important to the Republican base such as immigration.  He moves from 29th place to 26th place.  His payout has dropped from 54.7X to 48.9X.  That is the highest odds he has been at this cycle.

Hillary Clinton had the biggest drop of the week as she embarked on her book tour.  In an interview last Sunday she stated “I am done with being a candidate” and she repeated that theme in interviews throughout the week.  She dropped from 11th place to 12th place with her payout increasing from 30.4X to 34.9X.  This is the lowest she has been.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

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