Category Archives: Buttigieg 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Harris 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Weld 2020

Trump’s odds see slight increase and reach another new high after release of redacted Mueller report; Buttigieg and Sanders remain hottest names, coming at the expense of Kamala Harris and Beto O’Rourke; Bill Weld makes his primary challenge of Trump official

There was very little impact to Donald Trump’s odds from the release of the redacted Mueller report, as they moved from 2.23X to 2.20X. This did set a new high for the second straight week.

The two hottest names on the Democratic side remained Bernie Sanders Pete Buttigieg.

Pete Buttigieg’s gains seem to be coming at the expense of Beto O’Rourke. Just five weeks ago, Buttigieg was in 10th place at 40.5X, he is now at 11.1X (13.0X last week) and just overtook O’Rourke for 5th place overall. Over that same span, Beto has dropped from 8.9X to the current 13.8X. Buttigieg finally made his official entry to the field last week and has been the “surprise of the Democratic field”.

Nine weeks ago Kamala Harris was the darling of the left at 6.4X, more than twice the odds of Bernie Sanders who was at 16.3X (behind Harris, Biden, and Beto). Sanders then made it official and raised $6 million in the next 24 hours. He has continued to improve his odds at the expense of Harris. His odds rose this week from 6.89X to 6.74X. Harris dropped from 7.66X to 8.46X. This week, Sanders made the unexpected move of going to Fox for a Townhall. It became the most watched townhall of this election season.

Bill Weld finally made his challenge of Trump for the Republican nomination official. He is a long-shot to say the least. His odds are at 140.5X which puts him in 38th place overall. To give some perspective, there are 5 other Republicans with higher odds ahead of him: Mike Pence (12th place 63X), Nikki Haley (14th place 82X), Ben Shapiro (20th place 105X), John Kasich (25th place at 117X, coincidentally, he was thought of as most likely to challenge Trump and his odds dropped this week from 105X), and Mitt Romney (27th place 125X).

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Sanders 2020, Swalwell 2020, Trump 2020

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders reach new highs; Pete Buttigieg has a great week before official announcement; Eric Swalwell enters race with focus on gun control

Donald Trump reached a new high this past week with his odds improving from 2.35X to 2.23X. His previous high was 2.31X in August 2018. Trump’s odds have now improved for seven straight weeks. He was at 2.93X eight weeks ago. It will be interesting to see how the odds react with the reported release of the redacted Mueller report in the coming week.

Bernie Sanders, the current top Democrat in the standings, also reached a new high this week. His odds improved from 7.09X to 6.89X. He’s off to a much better start than in 2016. Here’s a numeric analysis of the difference between the two cycles for Sanders so far.

The hottest candidate remains Pete Buttigieg. Although he has not officially entered the race (will likely announce in South Bend on Sunday), one couldn’t avoid the Midwestern Mayor in the media in the past week. As Vanity Fair put it, he had “one hell of a week”.

Another week brought in another candidate for the Democrats. This week it was CA Rep Eric Swalwell. He has chosen gun control as his focus. The announcement didn’t have a big impact on his odds. He improved from 158.2X to 154.5X, which was enough to move him from 58th place to 50th place.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Ryan_Tim 2020, Sanders 2020, Uncategorized

Trump near all time highs; Biden down on allegations; Buttigieg remains hottest name; Sanders leads in fundraising; Tim Ryan enters race

For the second week in a row, Donald Trump’s Odds saw a big increase, this time from 2.41X to 2.35X. His odds have now improved for six straight weeks and are the highest since the middle of August 2018 when they were at 2.33X. His all time high was a few weeks before that at 2.31X near the beginning of August 2018.

As we forecast last week when the news was breaking, allegations of making women feel uncomfortable have negatively impacted Joe Biden’s odds. He dropped from 7.96X to 9.66X. He was at 7.18X, his high for the cycle, just two weeks ago. He is now stating he wants to be the last candidate to announce he is running.

Biden’s misfortune seems to have given Michael Bloomberg’s candidacy some oxygen. Axios reported Bloomberg would enter if Biden falters and the “centrist lane were to open up”. His odds improved from 111.2X to 83.8X and he moved up from 31st place to 15th place. Bloomberg was at 30.8X and in 9th place when he announced he was not running beginning of March.

Once again the hottest name remained Pete Buttigieg. A recent poll had him tied with Elizabeth Warren in 5th place. His odds this week improved from 19.0X to 14.2X, another new high. He was at 76.1X just a month ago and at 104.9X two months ago.

The other Democratic candidate with momentum this week was Bernie Sanders. His odds jumped on the news he led all the candidates in fundraising. He improved from 7.31X to 7.09X. He remains the leading Democratic candidate in the odds.

What’s another week without another Democratic candidate announcing? This week it was Tim Ryan’s turn. The odds for the Ohio Rep. improved from 177.2X to 150.0X, and he jumped from 77th place to 50th place, still a long shot.

Here is the full set of odds:

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