Trump continues to have a big lead but his odds have now dropped for five straight weeks. Back in the middle of January, Trump’s odds were at 26.9%. He is now at 24.5%. His payout is now at 2.6X, up from 2.5X. That is the tied for his highest payout since re-election.
Two movers in the top 10 were Cory Booker and Paul Ryan. Paul Ryan hopped over Bernie Sanders to get back to 7th place. His payout dropped from 26.9X to 25.6X. Cory Booker remained in 6th place but his payout dropped from 23.2X to 22.2X, his lowest since the beginning of January.
One debut this week was NY Mayor Bill de Blasio, who made his debut in 18th place. His payout is at 37.5X.
Donald Trump’s Odds for re-election declined slightly after his first week in office. His payout increased from 2.4X to 2.5X, the highest in 6 weeks. Compared to the rest of the pool he has a 26% chance, still higher than the next five candidates combined.
Hillary Clinton has been moving up since the end of November when she was in 11th place. She is now in 5th place, tied with Cory Booker. Their payout is at 23.1x and their probability is at 2.8%.
The other big mover was Kamala Harris who moves up from 14th place to 12th place. Her payout moved from an average of 32.5x to 30.3x times.
There was very little change in the odds this week. In fact the top four have been the same since I started tracking the new odds two weeks after the elections.
Donald Trump continues to lead at 26.5% and a payout of 2.4 to 1. The payout has stabilized at 2.4, after starting out at 2.6.
The next three include Mike Pence at 8.8 to 1, Elizabeth Warren at 10.8 to 1, and Michelle Obama at 13.1 to 1.
Cory Booker has been a fairly consistent number 5 with a current payout of 23.7 to 1 and Hillary Clinton has ranged between 11th and her current 6th place at 25 to 1.
