For the 7th straight week, Donald Trump’s odds continued at 3.0X. Trump reach his high point in the weeks leading up to his inauguration when the payout was at only 2.4X. He bottomed at 3.3X on 5/20, the week the special counsel was announced. His odds of winning are currently at 20.3%, as much as the next four competitors combined (Pence, Warren, Obama, Sanders)
Cory Booker continues to be in the top tier of competitors. He moved up from 7th place to 6th place this week. He was asked about running in 2020 and answered “I don’t know what the future’s going to bring,” His payout moved from 22.4X to 21.4X. That is his highest since the middle of January.
Another Democrat who improved is CA Senator Kamala Harris. The freshman Senator has raised her profile within her own party by helping Democrats running in 2018 raise money. She moved up from 12th place to 11th place as her payout dropped from 30.9X to 27.9X. This is the highest she has been this cycle.
One Republican who hasn’t been shy about criticizing Donald Trump is Ben Sasse. He was asked last Sunday about whether he would challenge Trump. He didn’t answer the question, fueling speculation. He moved up from 44th place to 40th place with the payout moving from 101X to 89.7X.
Donald Trump’s odds continued their slow decline, moving from 20.7% to 20.5%, his lowest since the election. His payout increases from 3.0X to 3.1X. He still has as much probability as the next four candidates.
Hillary Clinton lost her bump from last week when she “resurfaced” in the media. She drops to 6th place falling behind Cory Booker. Her payout increased from 22.0x to 22.8X, the highest payout (or lowest probability) since the beginning of January.
The drop with Clinton seemed to give another well known Democrat, Joe Biden, a bump. He hops over Paul Ryan for 8th place. His payout drops from 28.5X to 26.3X. This is the lowest payout all year.
The hottest name continues to be Mark Zuckerberg. He moves from 13th place to 11th place. His payout drops from 33.9X to 32.1X. Zuckerberg has been up in 10 of the last 13 weeks. He continues to move up since he made his debut in January in 50th place at a payout of 107X.
Donald Trump’s odds saw an uptick improving from 21.4% to 21.6%, and payout for those betting on him decreased from 3.0X to 2.9X. Both of these are exactly he was two weeks ago.
Paul Ryan’s odds dropped ahead of a big legislative week. His payout increased from 26.6X to 27.3X. He remains in 8th place
On the Democratic side, Cory Booker’s odds improved as his payout decreased from 22.9X to 22.4X. This is the best he has been in 6 weeks. He remains in 6th place overall and 4th among the Democrats (behind Warren, Obama, and Clinton).
Andrew Cuomo also saw his odds improve as his payout dropped from 29.5X to 28.8X. This is right around the average of where he has been (28.5X) since the tracking started post elections.
