Category Archives: Bloomberg 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Bloomberg 2020, Garcetti 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump Sees First Dip in 20 Weeks; Warren Standout at Netroots Nation; Bloomberg Most Likely Centrist? Garcetti to Decide After Midterms

After 20 straight weeks of his odds improving, Donald Trump finally saw a dip.  His odds dropped from 2.31X to 2.33X.  That is still the second highest he has been at this whole cycle and is still nearly 5 times more likely to get elected as the next competitor.

Elizabeth Warren was the standout at Netroots Nation and is seen by many as the darling of the left. Her odds once again improved from 14.0X to 13.5X.  These are her highest odds in 19 weeks.  She remains in 4th place behind both Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders but ahead of Joe Biden for the Democrats.

The most likely “centrist” for either party continues to be Michael Bloomberg. His odds improved from 48.4X to 42.5X.  These are his best odds in 18 weeks.  He is slowly making his move up from 15th place five weeks ago to 11th place this week.

Eric Garcetti says he’ll decide on whether he is running after the midterms.  TMZ is more confident about him running. His odds improved from 62.8X to 54.7X.  That is a new high and moves him from 24th place to 15th place.

Here are the full odds:

Views – 654

2020 Weekly Odds, Bloomberg 2020, Garcetti 2020, Harris 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Continue to Improve; Kamala Harris Doesn’t Rule Out Running, Jumps to Second Place; Bloomberg Active In Helping Dems Capture House; Garcetti Continues to Increase Profile

Donald Trump’s odds continued to improve inching up from 2.46X to 2.45X, his highest odds since the inauguration in Jan 2017.  He has either been flat or improved the last 14 weeks.  He was at 2.79X at the start of the streak.

Kamala Harris improved from 11.8X to 11.4X.  This is a new high for her and enough of an improvement to have her jump back into second place ahead of Bernie Sanders.  Harris would not rule out running in 2020 this week when pressed for an answer during an interview.

Michael Bloomberg improved from 48.4X to 45.8X. This was enough to move him from 14th place to 13th place.  He has been on a mini hot streak moving from 21st place at the beginning of the month. Bloomberg is making sizable contributions to help the Democrats win the House in 2018.  Some think this may also be a way to set him up for a possible 2020 run.

Erica Garcetti improved from 68.1X to 67.3X and moving up from 32nd place to 31st. He was in 36th place four weeks ago.  Garcetti continued to increase his profile this week by having an in depth interview with Vox

Here are the full odds:

Views – 717

2020 Weekly Odds, Bloomberg 2020, Ryan 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Little Change in Trump’s Odds Post Comey Hearing. Sanders, Bloomberg, Rubio Improve.

There was little change in Donald Trump’s odds post Comey testimony.  For the third straight week the payout was at 3.0X .  His probability did have a small move up to 20.8% from 20.5%, his highest in three weeks. He has a large lead with nearly three times the odds of his next closest competitor, VP Mike Pence.

Bernie Sanders has increased his profile leading the opposition  and his odds reflect that.  His payout dropped from 23.6X to 22.6X.  That is his second lowest of the cycle (22.5X beginning of April).  He remains in 7th place overall, 5th among Democrats.

Michael Bloomberg opposed the U.S. leaving the Paris accord and offered his own funding to help. That increase in profile seemed to have improved his odds.  His payout dropped from 35.7X to 33.7X. That is the lowest payout he’s been at this cycle.  He remains in 15th place.

Marco Rubio moved up from 19th place to 18th place.  His payout dropped from 38.7X to 36.6X.  That is his lowest since the end of the year. He is the top Republican  outside of the Trump orbit (Pence and Ryan are ahead of him in the odds).

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 764