Category Archives: Biden 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Sanders 2020, Steyer 2020, Trump 2020

Biden’s odds surge on the back of South Carolina and Super Tuesday performance and the dropout and endorsement of rivals; Trump’s Odds remain near all time highs; Sanders’ odds tank to a 4 month low; Who’s a tougher matchup for Trump? A State by state look

There was a tremendous amount of shakeout in odds this past week on the Democratic side, to reflect the big changes in the field. It all started with an endorsement of Joe Biden prior to the South Carolina primary by Jim Clyburn. Although Biden would have likely won with or without the endorsement, it helped Biden to a route as he more than doubled Bernie Sanders’ vote total. That was followed up shortly with Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Tom Steyer all dropping out and endorsing Biden prior to Super Tuesday. This gave Biden the momentum for Super Tuesday, where he beat Bernie Sanders (who prior to the weekend was believed to be the winner for that important day). This also ended the short lived but expensive campaign of Michael Bloomberg who endorsed Biden as well, and ended the campaign of Elizabeth Warren, who has yet to endorse anyone.

Where does this leave us as far as the odds with really three candidates remaining?

Despite the improved likelihood of a centrist (Biden) winning the Democratic ticket, and the bad headlines on the Coronavirus/stock market, Trump’s odds remained very resilient. They were flat to last week’s 1.60X and just shy of the all time high of 1.59X. They have been either 1.59X or 1.60X the last 5 weeks. The combined odds for Biden and Sanders are currently 2.93, which puts Trump’s odds against those two at 65.2%

Joe Biden’s results obviously saw a tremendous jump from 8.70X to 3.99X, his all tine high.

3.99X is exactly where Sanders was last week. He dropped this week from 3.99X to 12.0X. His lowest since mid November.

Hillary Clinton and Mike Pence remained fairly strong as the alternatives at 71.1X and 74.6X, and Michael Bloomberg, with the ability to come in from sidelines with his billions should Biden falter is at 166.0X.

With the Democrats down to two main candidates, we will transition this blog to look at those two candidates against Trump on a state by state basis. Below is the current summary of the more important states (either swing or high number of electoral), and recent polls of the two candidates vs. Trump. This will get refined as more polls start coming in. Currently, this crude method has Democrats winning by 50 electoral votes regardless of candidate (the opposite of what the betting market suggests). Although the result is the same whether it’s Biden or Sanders, it’s important to point out that with the 6 states with recent polls, Biden does better against Trump in 4 of them than Sanders does. They both do equally against Trump in the other 2.

Here are the current odds of the remaining field as well as the state by state early look:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Sanders’ win in NV propels his odds to another new high; Trump stays near all time highs; Biden big winner as centrist Dems look to consolidate; Bloomberg sees second big drop in a row, as he continues to eye Big Tuesday; Warren and Klobuchar reach new lows

Donald Trump’s Odds remained near an all time high for a fourth straight week coming in at 1.60X vs. last week’s 1.59X. The odds had been at 1.59X. the all time high, for three straight weeks. Trunp’s odds against the top 5 candidates decreased slightly from 56.7% to 56.5% as their combined odds improved from 2.09X to 2.08X.

Sanders dominated Nevada and his odds improved from their previous high of 4.22X to this week’s 3.99X. Sanders won just shy of 47% of the vote and 2/3 of the delegates.

Joe Biden was the odds winner on the week as it became clear that Democrats not wanting Sanders have to unite behind one candidate. His odds jumped from 20.3X to 8.71X, his highest in four weeks. He is likely to win South Carolina. If he disappoints, the centrist Democrats will have to find someone else to get behind for Super Tuesday, including possibly Bloomberg.

Michael Bloomberg had his second bad week in a row dropping from 7.58X to 12.0X, which is where he was six weeks ago. He took part in his second debate and had a small improvement but still not enough. He of course has bid everything on Super Tuesday and would likely benefit from a Sanders win with all the moderate votes being split up.

Buttigieg, Warren, and Klobuchar all had their odds cut by nearly a half as the realization that they have not done well enough to jump close to Sanders and are not likely to do well in South Carolina, means they have very little left for Super Tuesday:

  • Buttigieg dropped from 24.1X to 45.4X, his lowest in 4 weeks
  • Warren dropped from 53.4X to 97.6X, her all time low. She has the high for the Democrats this cycle (higher than Sanders is currently at) at 3.3X in October of 2019
  • Klobuchar dropped from 86.7X to 178.5X, a new all time low for her

Here is a trend of the top candidates as well as the odds for the field:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Pre NV Caucus post debate odds: Bloomberg takes incoming from all sides, odds sink; Sanders at an all time high while Warren’s “fiery” debate performance brings life back to her odds; Targeting of Bloomberg provides relief for Biden, whose odds improve; Trump’s odds still at all time high

Donald Trump’s odds remained at their all time high of 1.59X for the third straight week as the Democrats used the NV debate to turn their attacks on each other, mostly Bloomberg. As for the top 5 Democrats their odds improved slightly from 2.13X to 2.09X as Warren came back to life. This gives Trump an implied likelihood of beating the top 5 of 56.7%, down slightly from last week’s all time high of 57.2%.

It was an eventful week for the Democrats that included Michael Bloomberg’s first debate (coincidentally the most watched Democratic debate in history) and that ends in tonight’s NV caucus.

Coming into the week, Michael Bloomberg was the hottest candidate having jumped from 6th place to 2nd place in a mere 7 weeks and having tripled his odds over that period. Bloomberg managed to qualify for the NV debate last minute and chose to take part in it, even though he is not taking part in the caucus. Perhaps that was a mistake, as the other Democrats piled on the former NYC Mayor. On the other hand, perhaps it was a good strategy to get that out of the way before the next debate, which will be the last before Super Tuesday, Bloomberg’s big target all along. His odds dropped from 5.16X to 7.58X, still his second highest ever.

There seemed to be two big beneficiaries from Bloomberg’s fall. Bernie Sanders’ odds rose from 5.67X to 4.22X, which was enough for him to jump over Bloomberg for second overall, and also set a new personal high for the Senator.

The other big winner was Elizabeth Warren. The Senator was “on fire” during the debate, but some wonder if it’s a bit too late. Her odds showed a big rebound from 93.2X to 53.4X. That is a huge jump, but keeping things in perspective, she was at 38.3X the week before just prior to the NH Primary.

Joe Biden was for once not the target of his rivals, and that seemed to help. His odds improved from 22.3 to 20.3. He remains in 4th place.

Amy Klobuchar will need to surprise in either NV or SC or her campaign may run out of time, air, money…. Her odds dropped from 43.9X to 86.7X. She is still above the 122.7X she was at before the NH primary, but she will need to show she can sustain momentum from NH in NV and/or SC, two difficult states for her.

Here is a trend of the top candidates and the odds for the field:

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