Category Archives: Abrams 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Abrams 2020, Biden 2020, Demings 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020

Odds for Trump and Biden flat with Trump still holding a lead; Harris and Abrams see boost while Demings makes her debut in VP odds; Polls in TX, OH, and NC show Trump in lead while polls in FL and WI show Biden in lead

Trump’s odds remained flat at 1.91X, tied for a 4 week high. Biden’s inched up to 2.26X from 2.27X, a 3 week high. Trump’s implied odds against Biden remained at 54.2% (rounding), tied for the highest lead since it became a one on one race.

Here are the full odds:

On the VP side, the odds rose for most female African American candidates: Kamala Harris remained the top candidate and rose from 3.6X to 2.9X. Stacy Abrams rose from 16.7X to 12.5X. Val Demings made her debut at 25.0X (tied with Michelle Obama for 7th place).

Here are the full odds:

Polls from swing states released this week included:

  • Texas +6 for Trump (reinforces TX for Trump after last week’s Biden +1)
  • Ohio +3 for Trump (after 3 straight for Biden, reinforcing why we still have it as a tossup)
  • Wisconsin Biden +3 (3 straight for Biden, but too slim to pull out of tossup)
  • North Carolina Trump +3 (reinforcing the tossup with the last 4 polls being split)
  • Florida Biden +6. This is the biggest news and causes us to pull FL out of the tossup and into Biden’s. Biden has now led the last three polls in that state +4, +3, and now his widest margin of +6

With the change in Florida, the projection is now at Biden 330 and Trump 208. This is a big disconnect from the odds. The odds and the polls are what they are. We are making a judgment call on what the polls mean electorally. People are betting that just like 2016, the polls are misleading. Here are the details behind the electoral forecast:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Abrams 2020, Bennet 2020, Biden 2020, Harris 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds flat to last week’s new high; Biden’s jumps Sanders despite attacks from both sides; Warren gaining momentum; Abrams decision not to run for Senate sparks speculation; Bennet enters race

Donald Trump’s odds remained flat to last week at 2.18X, which is their high for this election cycle. Prior to that he had improved for 9 straight weeks. Keep in mind when it’s finally a two person race, and if both candidates are tied, the odds will likely be 1.80X for each candidate.

The hottest candidate once again was Joe Biden, surpassing Bernie Sanders for second place overall. His odds rose from 8.18X to 6.26X. This was not only a new high for him. It was also the high for anyone not named Trump. Biden’s previous high was 7.18X in March (prior to improper touching allegations). It will be interesting to see if Biden can remain on top as he gets attacked from all sides including attacks from the President, attacks from his left, and from other unaffiliated parties.

Prior to Biden this week, the field’s previous high was Kamala Harris at 6.28X in February. Since then the California Democrat has declined to this week’s 11.3X and 4th place overall.

Last week, we talked about Elizabeth Warren possibly reaching a bottom. Her odds improved for a second week in a row improving from 32.0X to 24.7X. This is now the highest she has been in 9 weeks. The “policy” candidate seems to be gaining momentum on her promise to erase $50,000 of student debt.

Stacey Abrams announced she will not run for the Senate in 2020, and that fueled speculation she may be running for a bigger office. Her odds jumped from last week’s 145.9X and 35th place to 90.6X and 13th place, by far the highest she has been.

What’s another week without another Democrat announcing they are running. Michael Bennett made it official, and like many other Democrats that are not in the top tier, his odds dropped on the announcement, for Bennett from 136.1X and 32nd place to 152.6X and 35th place. He is number 22 in the field. One potential candidate for next week is NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio. He is currently in 42nd place at 165.5X.

Here are the list of 65 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot
(last week there were 71):

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