Donald’s Trump remained fairly flat as his probability saw a slight dip from 20.7% to 20.5%. The payout remained at 3.0X, flat to last week. He had a big drop two weeks ago with the announcement on a special counsel but then rebounded last week. He has similar probability as the next four candidates combined.
Joe Biden fueled speculation of a run by launching a PAC. This helped him keep his hot streak with his payout dropping from 21.5X to 20.9X. That is the lowest payout (highest odds) he has been at. He has improved over the last 8 weeks . He began that stretch with a payout of 291X, and has moved from 9th place to the current 5th place.
Another hot name has been Mark Zuckerberg. A new PAC (that he has nothing to do with) was formed with the goal of convincing the Facebook founder to run. He moves into the the top 10 from 12th place. He was in 16th place 5 weeks ago and in 50th place beginning of the year. His payout has shrunk from over 100X at the beginning of the year to last week’s 32.7X and this week’s 28.9X.
Amy Klobuchar’s odds improved with her payout decreasing from 39.1X to 36.5X. This was an improvement from her worst week as far as odds. Most think she will run in 2020, and that certainly fits with her spending some time in Iowa a few weeks ago. She is now in 16th place and has ranged between 12th place back in January and 19th place last week.
Last week Trump’s odd saw a big drop which was a result of the appointment of a Russia special prosecutor. The odds rebounded this week as the President made his international debut. Trump’s probability improved from 19.4% to 20.7% which is back to where it was at the beginning of the month. His payout dropped from 3.3X to 3.0X, again where it was at the beginning of the month.
The big mover for the Democrats was Joe Biden. The former VP jumped from 8th place to 5th place as his schedule “fueled 2020 speculation”. His average payout dropped from 25.7X to 21.5X. This is the highest he has been since the odds started post election. At that time he was in 15th place.
A large part of Biden’s jump came at the expense of Hillary Clinton. Clinton increased her profile a few weeks back when she was in 5th place. Since then she has dropped to 6th place last week and to 8th place this week. Her payout has increased from an average of 22.8X to 24.4X. That is the highest her payout has been since January when it was at 25.0X.
The hottest name of the last two weeks has been former wrestler and current actor Dwayne Johnson. Two weeks ago he was in 41st place. His Tonight Show appearance fueled speculation last week and he jumped to 24th place. This continued this week as he jumped to 16th place. $1 bet on him a few weeks back would have resulted in $100 had he won. That is now down to just 36.4X this week, from last week’s 53.2X.
Donald Trump’s reelection odds took a big drop this week with the appointment of a special counsel. He is still the odds-on favorite having a higher probability than the next three candidates combined. The payout for putting money on trump increases from 3.1X to 3.3X and his probability dropped from 20.5% to 19.4%. It began at 30.0% shortly after his election.
Trump’s drop helped his closest competition in 2020. Mike Pence, who has been in 2nd place the entire time improves from 7.4% to 7.6%. His payout decreases from 8.6X to 8.3X, his lowest to date. There was increased talk among some Republicans of Pence being a better path forward to getting the Republican agenda through.
Elizabeth Warren, who has been in 3rd place and the Democratic leader in odds, also improved. Her odds improved from 6.1% to 6.5%. Her payout dropped from 10.4X to 9.8X.
