Category Archives: 2020 Weekly Odds

2018 Elections, 2020 Weekly Odds, Hickenlooper 2020, Trump 2020

Trump Continues to Edge Up; John Hickenlooper Odds Improve as He Weighs in on Immigrant Debate; State of ’18 Congressional Elections

Trump continued to edge up as his odds improved from 2.47X to 2.46X.  These are his best odds since his inauguration at end of January 2017.

Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper weighed in on the immigration debate by signing an executive order banning the use of CO resources from separating immigrant families.  The term limited Democrat is thought to be leaning towards running in 2020.  His odds jumped from 68.8X to 65.0X. He moves up from 32nd place to 31st.

There were very few other moves in odds on the week.

Here are the overall results:

One thing to keep an eye on is the 2018 Congressional elections.  It is well known that regardless of which party has the White House, it looses seats in the midterm elections.  That is likely to be the case this year for Congress, although the Republicans may increase their lead in the Senate (due to 29 D Senate seats up for election vs. 9 for Republicans).

Here is the trend of expected seats.  This uses the projections from the  Cook Political Report and assigns probabilities.  The chart shows the progress of the “Blue Wave” over time.  It seems to have plateaued in April.  Current forecast is 223 Democrats and 213 Republicans.

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Harris 2020, Obama 2020, Pence 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Reflection on First 18 Months of 2020 Election Cycle: How Have the Odds Shifted at the Top?

We are 18 months post the 2016 Election.  How have the odds at the top changed?

At the very top, Donald Trump has maintained a giant lead throughout.  He was at 2.6 to 1 in December, started dropping immediately and bottomed at 3.5 to 1 in September 2017, but has rebounded to his current 2.7X.  Although he has the most likely odds, they are still well under 50%.

Mike Pence was the number 2 candidate in December, most of those odds revolved around speculation of either Trump not finishing his term or not running in 2020.  As time has gone on, those odds have drifted down.  His odds have dropped from 9.5X in December to the current 15.5X. As a result he has dropped from 2nd place to the current 6th place.

Elizabeth Warren started as the Democratic favorite.  Much like 2016, Warren had many on the left believing it was her time while she gave no indication of running.  She started out at 11.1 to 1 odds.  She then stated she would run for the Senate and finish out her term if she wins. That would indicate no 2020 run.  Her odds dropped as a result to 14.9 to 1, but she still remains near the top in 5th place overall.

Michelle Obama began in 4th place at 13.7 to 1.  The former First Lady had a high favorability rating and name recognition.  She has consistently stated she is not running and as a result has dropped to 10th place overall and odds at 31.3X.

Cory Booker began in 5th place at 19.6 to 1. While most speculate that he will still run, he has been overshadowed as a top tier Democratic candidate by Sanders, Harris, and Biden.

Bernie Sanders was in 14th place in December at 32.1X.  Most believed he would not run in 2020, perhaps due to age or for talk of the Democrats looking for new blood at the top.  Instead, Sanders has managed to stay relevant and moved up to be the top contender as of right now for the Democratic nomination.  He has the experience and infrastructure of a campaign and has seen his odds improve to 11.4X, nearly tripling over the last three months.

Kamala Harris is the biggest mover of all.  The freshman Senator from CA did not have a national profile back in Dec 16.  She was in 15th place with odds of 34.8 to 1.  Over the past 18 months she has elevated her national profile and even reached second place overall back in March.  She is currently in 3rd place at 12.1X.

Joe Biden is the other big riser over the last 18 months.  Much like Sanders, Biden was discounted due to age and the Democrats wanting a fresh face for 2020. He was in 10th place in Dec 2017 at 26.8 to 1. Despite not holding an office, Biden has managed to keep his name in the news.  He has taken on President Trump at every opportunity and refuses to rule out running in 2020. He is currently in 4th place overall at 14.6X.

Here’s the top 5 then and now as well as the overall current leaderboard:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Gillibrand 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds Hold Steady at One Year Highs; Kamala Harris’ Candidacy Needs Work Back in CA; Warren Continues to Drift Down; Gillibrand Continues to Increase Profile

For the 4th straight week, Donald Trump’s odds remained flat at 2.77X.  These have been his high for over a year.   This is basically the same odds as the next 9 Republican candidates combined, meaning about a 50/50 shot of being the Republican nominee.

Kamala Harris improved slightly from 12.7X to 12.5X and remains in third overall.  Harris seems to be better known as a national name than a local CA name.  That may be problematic come primary time as CA has moved up its primary.

Elizabeth Warren’s odds continued to drift down after announcing she intends on finishing her second term if reelected in the fall.  She was at 13.0X at that time and dropped to 13.8X. This was followed by 14.3X last week, and the current at 14.7X. She remains in 4th place overall.

Kirsten Gillibrand continues to increase her profile as evidenced by this GQ article.  Her odds improved from 24.7X to 23.8X.  That puts her in 7th place overall, an area she’s occupied for six of the last eight weeks when she capitalized on the #MeToo movement.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

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