Category Archives: 2020 Weekly Odds

2020 Weekly Odds, Brown 2020, ORourke 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds Improve Despite Gains for the Democrats on Election Night; Sherrod Brown the Big Winner on Election Night and in the Odds; Beto’s Odds Skyrocket Despite Defeat while Warren’s Drop After her Reelection

There were many changes in the odds post the midterm elections.

Despite the Democratic gains in the House and many thinking the elections were more about Trump than the Republicans,  Donald Trump’s odds still improved from the prior week.  His odds rose from 2.50X to 2.43X.  That is the 3rd straight week of gains and his highest odds in 11 weeks.

Perhaps the biggest winner on Tuesday night was Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown.  The swing from Trump’s Ohio victory to Brown’s victory this year was an impressive 14.5%. His odds jumped from 78.9X to 54.7X and he moved from 33rd place to 15th place.

Elizabeth Warren’s odds dropped dramatically from 11.5X to 14.1X.  These are her worst odds in 15 weeks.  Warren won reelection to her second term rather easily and said it’s too early to decide about 2020.

Beto ORourke lost his Senate race to Ted Cruz on Tuesday but his odds skyrocketed from 21.4X to 11.2X.  That was enough to lift him to third place overall behind just Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.  His closer than expected loss on Tuesday fueled optimism from his admirers that he will run.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Haley 2020, Hickenlooper 2020, Patrick 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Continue to Inch up; Bill Kristol Wants Haley to Challenge Trump; Deval Patrick’s Lack of Name Recognition isn’t New; Hickenlooper “Leaning Strongly” Towards Running

Donald Trump’s odds improved slightly from 2.52X to 2.50X.  This is the highest he has been in 7 weeks.  He has been out campaigning for Republicans the past few weeks and seems to be energized each day at his rallies.

“Establishment” Republicans have been looking for a challenger to Trump in 2020.  Bill Kristol would like to talk Nikki Haley into it.   Her odds increased slightly to 57.7X from 58.0X.  She is in 18th place overall and third among the Republicans behind Trump and Pence.

Deval Patrick doesn’t have the same name recognition as other Democrats but many insiders still believe he can pull it off. His odds improved this week from 65.2X to 61.9X, putting him in 19th place up from 22nd. He has bounced around between 14th place and 32nd place this election cycle.

John Hickenlooper is “leaning strongly” towards running. His odds improved from 68.8X to 65.6X, and he moved from 28th place to 24th place.  These are his best odds in 12 weeks.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Bloomberg 2020, Garcetti 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump Sees First Dip in 20 Weeks; Warren Standout at Netroots Nation; Bloomberg Most Likely Centrist? Garcetti to Decide After Midterms

After 20 straight weeks of his odds improving, Donald Trump finally saw a dip.  His odds dropped from 2.31X to 2.33X.  That is still the second highest he has been at this whole cycle and is still nearly 5 times more likely to get elected as the next competitor.

Elizabeth Warren was the standout at Netroots Nation and is seen by many as the darling of the left. Her odds once again improved from 14.0X to 13.5X.  These are her highest odds in 19 weeks.  She remains in 4th place behind both Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders but ahead of Joe Biden for the Democrats.

The most likely “centrist” for either party continues to be Michael Bloomberg. His odds improved from 48.4X to 42.5X.  These are his best odds in 18 weeks.  He is slowly making his move up from 15th place five weeks ago to 11th place this week.

Eric Garcetti says he’ll decide on whether he is running after the midterms.  TMZ is more confident about him running. His odds improved from 62.8X to 54.7X.  That is a new high and moves him from 24th place to 15th place.

Here are the full odds:

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