Category Archives: 2020 Weekly Odds

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Ryan_Tim 2020, Sanders 2020, Uncategorized

Trump near all time highs; Biden down on allegations; Buttigieg remains hottest name; Sanders leads in fundraising; Tim Ryan enters race

For the second week in a row, Donald Trump’s Odds saw a big increase, this time from 2.41X to 2.35X. His odds have now improved for six straight weeks and are the highest since the middle of August 2018 when they were at 2.33X. His all time high was a few weeks before that at 2.31X near the beginning of August 2018.

As we forecast last week when the news was breaking, allegations of making women feel uncomfortable have negatively impacted Joe Biden’s odds. He dropped from 7.96X to 9.66X. He was at 7.18X, his high for the cycle, just two weeks ago. He is now stating he wants to be the last candidate to announce he is running.

Biden’s misfortune seems to have given Michael Bloomberg’s candidacy some oxygen. Axios reported Bloomberg would enter if Biden falters and the “centrist lane were to open up”. His odds improved from 111.2X to 83.8X and he moved up from 31st place to 15th place. Bloomberg was at 30.8X and in 9th place when he announced he was not running beginning of March.

Once again the hottest name remained Pete Buttigieg. A recent poll had him tied with Elizabeth Warren in 5th place. His odds this week improved from 19.0X to 14.2X, another new high. He was at 76.1X just a month ago and at 104.9X two months ago.

The other Democratic candidate with momentum this week was Bernie Sanders. His odds jumped on the news he led all the candidates in fundraising. He improved from 7.31X to 7.09X. He remains the leading Democratic candidate in the odds.

What’s another week without another Democratic candidate announcing? This week it was Tim Ryan’s turn. The odds for the Ohio Rep. improved from 177.2X to 150.0X, and he jumped from 77th place to 50th place, still a long shot.

Here is the full set of odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Pence 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s odds skyrocket after William Barr’s summary while odds of 9 out of the next 10 competitors drop with biggest drop for Pence; Buttigieg continues to be hottest name doubling his odds; Biden sees drop on allegations of inappropriate touching

Donald Trump’s odds skyrocketed a week after William Barr’s summary of the Mueller report. The President took a “victory tour” and his odds jumped from 2.75X to 2.41X. These are his best odds in 7 months. He was at 2.33X in the middle of August.

The increase came at the expense of other candidates as 9 out of the next 10 top candidates dropped including Trump’s VP Mike Pence. Pence’s odds had the biggest drop, moving from 45.2X to 58.7X, marking a new low. Pence was as high as 8.0X back at the end of 2016. He is currently in 12th place.

The only candidate in the top 10 to improve was Pete Buttigieg. Buttigieg remains the hottest name in the field, having now improved in 8 straight weeks. This week his odds more than doubled moving from 40.5X to 19.0X. This was enough to move him to 6th place overall. He was in 30th place merely five weeks ago. The “millennial mayor” has become the early surprise of a crowded field.

The anticipation of Joe Biden’s candidacy over the last few weeks propelled his odds from 10.9X to 7.18X. Those odds saw a big drop this week on accusations of inappropriate touching. He is now at 7.96X dropping from 3rd place to 4th. With the accusations coming late in the week, it won’t be surprising to see a bigger drop in odds next week.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Conclusion of Mueller investigation helps Trump’s odds; Buttigieg’s hot streak lands him in top 10; Sanders focuses on CA while reports tease Biden’s potential VP pick; Both jump Harris for 2nd and 3rd place

News of the conclusion of the Mueller investigation seemed to give Donald Trump’s odds a boost. His odds improved from 2.85X to 2.75X. His odds have now improved the last 4 weeks and have reached their highest in three months.

One of the hottest names recently has been Pete Buttigieg. His odds skyrocketed this week from 63.5X to 40.5X, improving his standing from 14th place to 10th place. He made his debut in the odds merely 9 weeks ago at 103.6X (42nd place) when the 37 year old made his candidacy official.

Bernie Sanders is focusing on CA as the state’s move to an earlier primary makes is a big player. His momentum continued this week with his odds improving from 7.16X to 7.07X which allowed him to jump Kamala Harris for second overall.

Joe Biden also jumped Kamala Harris this week as his odds improved from 7.57X to 7.18X, putting him in 3rd place overall. Although he has not officially announced, stories leaked of him considering Stacey Abrams as his VP candidate and him committing to just one term, both ways to combat one of his perceived weaknesses being age.

Here are the full odds:

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