Category Archives: 2020 Weekly Odds

2020 Weekly Odds, Bennet 2020, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Castro 2020, de Blasio 2020, Delaney 2020, Gabbard 2020, Gillibrand 2020, Harris 2020, Hickenlooper 2020, Inslee 2020, Klobuchar 2020, ORourke 2020, Ryan_Tim 2020, Sanders 2020, Swalwell 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

First debate causes shakeup as Harris comes away the big winner at Biden’s expense. Debate and weeks of momentum finally have Warren move ahead of Sanders. Trump continues to cruise near all time highs

The first major shakeup of the odds this elections season came as a result of the first Democratic Debates, with Kamala Harris’ clash with Joe Biden on his history with segregationists having the biggest impact.

Kamala Harris’ odds saw the largest odds increase moving from 13.5X to 7.5X, a nearly 80% jump in odds. The 7.5X is the highest she has been in 14 weeks and was enough to propel her from last week’s 5th place for the Dems to jump over Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg for second place. She clearly has the momentum as evidenced by her raising $2M in the first 24 hours after the debate.

The clash had the opposite impact on the Democratic front runner with his odds dropping from 5.50X to 6.81X, a nearly 20% drop and his lowest in 9 weeks. Biden is still the odds favorite after the debate, but he must reverse momentum or risk losing much of his fundraising support.

The other subplot may be the Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders competition for lead among progressives. For the last 16 weeks, Joe Biden has been either the favorite or in second place for the Dems. For the last 11 weeks, Elizabeth Warren has been improving her odds at the expense of Sanders’ odds. Warren’s performance at the debate finally allowed her to leapfrog Sanders. Her odds jumped from 12.1X to 9.7X, landing her in 3rd place overall for the Dems. Sanders’ odds dropped from 11.7X to 12.8X, his lowest in over 4 months, taking him from 2nd place to 4th place among the Dems.

In the mean time, Donald Trump continued to cruise near all time highs at 2.03X. This is the 3rd straight week at the same level, and is just shy of the all time high of 2.02X achieved at the beginning of June. He has been in a narrow range of 2.02X to 2.04X the last 6 weeks. Although his odds were flat, the top 5 Democrats moved up as a group from 1.98X to 1.88X. The implied probability of the top 5 Dems vs. Trump moved from 50.6% Dems/ 49.4% Trump to 51.9% Dems / 48.1% Trump.

Here is a summary of the 20 Democrats in the debate and how their odds moved:

Here are the current standings for the 44 candidates with better than 200 to 1 odds (Note how 4 of the candidates from the debate are not on this list) :

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2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Harris 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds flat, near all time highs; Sanders declines for 9th straight week, remains in 3rd; Buttigieg and Harris make inroads with donors, regain momentum; Klobuchar up prior to possible breakout in debates

Donald Trump’s odds remained flat to last week at 2.03X just a shade lower than his all time high of 2.02X achieved two weeks ago. His odds have been in this area the past 5 weeks and are about 2.5 times more likely than his closest competitor Joe Biden, but slightly lower than the odds of the top five Democrats combined (1.98X) That will probably be the best comparison going forward.

Bernie Sanders’ odds continued to decline this week from 10.9X to 11.7X. This was the 9th straight week of declines. He was at 6.7X at the beginning of the streak. Amazingly, he has only dropped from 2nd place to 3rd place. Sanders is one of the more polarizing figures in the race, even among Democrats, as this analysis would suggest.

Unlike the last few weeks, the biggest beneficiary from Sanders’ drop was not Elizabeth Warren (who is just slightly behind him at 12.1X). Instead the beneficiaries were Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris. Both seem to have their path to the big Democratic donors, and that will give them an advantage in the long campaign. Buttigieg was up from 13.0X to 12.4X, and has been up the last three weeks. He is at his highest odds in 8 weeks. Harris was up from 14.1X to 13.5X. It reversed a trend of dropping or being flat the last 11 weeks.

So who will be the breakout of the upcoming debate. Some think it will be Amy Klobuchar. Her odds were up on the week from 76.5X to 67.9X. That was enough to lift her from 11th place to 10th place. Ironically, she jumped ahead of Cory Booker, the other person mentioned in the article above.

Below is a list of the top 59 candidates with better than 200-1 odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Hickenlooper 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds end a 15 week win streak with slight decline; Warren continues to be hottest candidate as her odds leap over Harris and Buttigieg; Sanders not backing away from “Socialism” tag, continues to be the biggest donor to Warren’s rise; Harris’ odds at 18 months low, drops to 6th place

After 15 weeks in a row of improvements, Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline from 2.02X to 2.03X. These are still the third highest odds he has been at behind the last two weeks which were both 2.02X.

The hottest name continues to be Elizabeth Warren, and her odds saw a big leap this week. For the previous 7 weeks, Warren had seen small increases moving from 34.0X on April 20th to 20.3X last week. This week’s odds showed a much larger improvement moving to 12.3X. That allowed her to move to 6th place from 4th place. These are her highest odds since in nearly seven months (since 11/3/2018). Her recent rise has not gone unnoticed by the President and he may be shifting his attacks.

Two longtime front-runners suffered the brunt of the downside from Warren’s rise. Sanders’ odds seem to be the mirror image of Warren’s the past few weeks. that continued this week dropping from 8.97X to 10.9X. That is nearly a 20% drop in one week, and his lowest odds since middle of February. Those were the odds he achieved after initially announcing and raising $6 Million in 24 hours. Sanders has stuck to his guns in embracing the “Socialist” label as other Democrats have run away from it.

The other frontrunner that suffered this week was Kamala Harris. Her odds dropped from 12.2X to 14.1X. These are her lowest odds in over 18 months (12/2/17). She is fighting perception in Iowa that she is looking past their state.

Although this time of the year will see volatility in the top candidates, there’s always interesting “under the radar” movement in odds. This week’s include Hillary Clinton who saw her odds jump from 109X to 103X. She’s reportedly not likely to run but just will not shut the door entirely. The other interesting name who has seen a significant increase for the second week in a row is John Hickenlooper. He improved from 145X to 126X last week, and 115X this week. He is now in 18th place, and has taken strong positions against socialism as his polite twitter battle with Sanders shows.

Below is a list of the top 63 candidates with better than 200-1 odds:

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