Category Archives: 2020 Weekly Odds

2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Harris 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Donald Trump’s odds see small dip, still close to all time high; Warren continues to be hottest name while Sanders continue to benefit from debate; Harris and Buttigieg continue recent cold streak

Donald Trump’s odds saw a small dip from 1.90X to 1.91X. That is still the 2nd highest he has been after last week’s number. His odds against the top 5 Democrats remained basically 50%/50% as they also dropped from 1.90X to 1.92X.

Elizabeth Warren continued to be the hottest name. She improved from 7.98X to 7.53X. She has now improved in 15 of the last 16 weeks. This is another new high for Warren, and widens the formerly narrow gap she had over Kamala Harris. She is quickly making herself the alternative to Biden for the Democrats.

Bernie Sander’s continued to ride the wave after the second debate. He was up from 14.2X to 12.9X. The debate ended a downward trend for the Vermont Senator. This is his highest point in 6 weeks.

On the other end of the spectrum was Kamala Harris. Her odds dropped from 8.04X to 8.88X. She has now dropped for four straight weeks. She was at 5.57X and in 4th place the middle of July. She became the first Democrat to buy some air time in Iowa, a key early voting state.

Another candidate drifting down is Pete Buttigieg. He dropped from 18.9X to 20.9X, and has now dropped for 7 straight weeks. He was at 12.4 on 6/22. This is his lowest point since around mid March.

The one cold candidate that reversed his trend, at least for this week, is Beto O’ Rourke. After establishing an all time low last week of 83.5X (He started at 54.7X in August 2018), O’Rourke saw an increase to 65.6X, basically where he was just two weeks ago, prior to the debate. This may be a result of a higher profile with the shootings in El Paso. We’ll see next week.

Here is a list of all the candidates with better than 200 to 1 odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Gabbard 2020, Harris 2020, Klobuchar 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Williamson 2020

Second Democratic debate leads to change in leadership as Harris stumbles and Biden doesn’t. Gabbard, Booker, and Williamson among the winners from debate. Warren continues streak while Sanders stops cold streak. Trump registers another new odds high.

Donald Trump’s Odds continued to be on a roll reaching a new high. The odds improved from last week’s all time high of 1.92X to this week’s 1.90X. He is still in a dead heat however with the top 5 Democrats which also improved from 1.92X to 1.90X combined.

Speaking of the Democrats, the second debate caused a lot of changes in the odds.

The first debate’s winner was undoubtedly Kamala Harris. It seems she is the biggest loser of the second debate. She was attacked on her healthcare plan and her record as a prosecutor. Her odds dropped from 6.3X and second place last week, to 8.0X and 4th place. Her odds are still ahead of where she was prior to the first debate (14X) and in line where she was at right after the first debate (7.5X).

The biggest winner was last debate’s biggest loser, Joe Biden. Unlike last debate, he didn’t stumble, and with Harris’ stumbles, that was enough to regain the lead. His odds jumped from 8.3X to 6.5X. He is once again the favorite for the Democrats. Biden is still behind the 5.5X he was at prior to the first debate and his all time high of 5.2X in early June.

Elizabeth Warren was another winner. She and Bernie Sanders were the liberals on their night against the more moderate candidates. They didn’t take shots at each other and that seemed to help. She continued her hot streak and is now up in 14 of the last 15 weeks. She improved from 8.4X to 8.0X, a new all time high. She was able to move slightly ahead of Harris for 3rd place overall.

Like Warren, Bernie Sanders also improved ending a 14 weeks steak of drops. He improved from 16.0X to 14.2X. He remained in 5th place.

Other winners included:

Aside from Kamala Harris, other losers included:

  • Beto O’ Rourke who dropped from 63.4X to 83.5X (9th place to 11th place). These are his lowest odds since making his debut after the viral video back in August 2018. He had a “subdued” performance without stumbles. That wasn’t enough.
  • Amy Klobuchar who dropped from 74.3X to 93.2X. (11th place to 12th place) She is another candidate at her all time lows. Despite the lack of momentum, she managed to qualify for the next set of debates.

Here are all of the candidates that participated in the debate and their odds last week and this week:

Here are the full odds of candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bullock 2020, Harris 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds improve after Mueller testimony; Warren continues to be hottest name; Biden’s favorable polls don’t move his odds; Improvements for Klobuchar and Bullock: could they breakout in the debate?

Donald Trump’s odds saw a jump a few days after the Mueller testimony. They rose from last week’s 1.98X to 1.92X. Although that seems minimal, fact is his odds have been improving almost every week of the last 6 months, and this week’s improvement is more than the improvement of the prior 8 weeks combined. He is now tied from an odds perspective with the top 5 Democratic candidates who saw their combined odds drop from 1.89X to 1.92X.

The hottest name continued to be Elizabeth Warren. Her odds improved from last week’s 8.88X to 8.36X, another new high. She has now improved in 13 of the last 14 weeks and is within striking distance of Joe Biden’s odds.

Speaking of Biden, favorable polls released showed there is a gap between how the Democratic base and oddsmakers feel about him vs. the general public. One poll from Fox News showed Biden leading Trump by 10 points head to head while other Democrats were tied with the President. Despite the polls, his saw a light drop this week from 8.19X to 8.26X. He is still behind Kamala Harris at 6.26X. Harris has now dropped the last two weeks from 5.57X, her all time high.

Two names that showed signs of life from an odds perspective and who need to breakout at this week’s upcoming debates are Amy Klobuchar and Steve bullock. Klobuchar was a breakout candidate prior to the last debate, when she was at 68X but didn’t stand out, and she dropped to 84X after. She has improved every week since then and is now back to 74X. Steve Bullock remains an extreme long shot and was not even at the last debate. He has improved the last three weeks from 213X to the current 178X. He is one of the more centrist candidates and has had a hard time breaking out.

Here are the 41 candidates with better than 200 to 1 shot

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