Category Archives: 2020 Weekly Odds

2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

Trump’s odds see slight bump ending streak; Warren continues to be hottest name, becoming target of rivals; Harris keeps dropping, is all in on Iowa; Money being bet on Clinton keeps pushing up odds

Donald Trump’s odds rose slightly for the first time in seven weeks. They are now at 2.02X compared to last week’s 2.03X. All time high is 1.90X at the start of August (prior to the 6 week streak). His odds against the top 5 Democratic candidates also rose from 48.1% to 48.5% partly from his improvement and partly from a decrease in their combined odds which worsened from 1.87X to 1.90X.

The hottest candidate continued to be Elizabeth Warren. She reached another new high at 4.89X up from 5.05X. She has now been up in 21 of the last 22 weeks. She was in 8th place at 34.0X just before the start of the streak at the end of April. Even though Warren has been the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for the last 6 weeks (odds acting as leading indicator), she is finally starting to get treated like it by her pears, and that’s not necessarily a good thing as other 2020 rivals will now start taking their shots to unseat her.

The coldest name remained Kamala Harris. She dropped from 18.9X to 23.1X. She peaked in the middle of July at 5.57X and has seen the bottom drop out of her odds. She is now reportedly running a new “Iowa-or-bust” strategy.

This week’s drop by Harris allowed Andrew Yang to jump into 5th place overall. He improved from 22.9X to 21.9X. Here’s a quick interview where Yang predicts the nickname Trump will give him.

For the second straight week, the odds for Hillary Clinton have moved without any news. The explanation is money being put on her as this article suggests. Two weeks ago she sat at 90X and in 12th place. Since then her odds jumped to 70X and 9th place last week, and 54X and 8th place this week (jumping Cory Booker). This is the highest she has been in nearly 2.5 years!

Here are the odds of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:

Here is a trend of the top candidates:

For updates follow us on twitter

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Castro 2020, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Democratic debate odds movement: Warren reaches a new high, Donors losing confidence in Kamala Harris, and Biden stable; Trump’s odds see another small decline; Clinton’s odds jump 30% to highest in 6 months

Donald Trump’s odds continued their recent trend of small declines as they dropped from 2.01X to 2.03X. They have now been flat or lower to the prior week for six straight weeks and are at their lowest point since the end of June. Trump’s odds against the top 5 opponents remained flat at 48%, as the top 5 combined Democrats also saw a slight drop from 1.86X to 1.87X.

The biggest winner of the debate this week and all of the debates in general seems to be Elizabeth Warren who seems to be the one shaping the direction the primary and debates move towards. Her odds improved this week from 5.5X to 5.0X, not only an all time high for her, but also an all time high for any Democratic candidate. (Previous was Biden at 5.19X in June). She has improved after every single debate and has moved up from 12.1X prior to the start of the debates, the biggest improvement of any candidate.

The biggest loser this debate was Kamala Harris. She saw the biggest improvement after the first debate (improving from 14X to 8X), but saw a big drop after the second debate (6.3X to 8.0X) and this week after the third debate (14X to 19X). Her debate performance is beginning to hurt her with big donors.

The best way to describe Biden’s odds post this debate is “stable”. He dropped slightly from 6.7X to 6.8X. Biden had a horrible first debate, rebounded in the second, and seems to have solidified himself as the center-left candidate. This third debate had its share of bad headlines for Biden mostly related to age with a record player comment, a jab by Castro about his memory, and his teeth staying in his mouth.

The one unexpected movement in odds was for Hillary Clinton. Her odds jumped from 90.0X to 69.5X. These are her highest odds since March 2019 when she announced she would not be running. The interesting thing is she seems to be getting active in 2020 by advising Democratic odds front runner Elizabeth Warren.

Here are the odds of the candidate with better than 200 to 1 odds as well as a breakdown of how odds have shifted as a result of the debates.

For updates follow us on Twitter

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Harris 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

Trump’s odds remained flat; Harris finally reverses downward trend; Yang at all time high, drawing attention from both Sanders and Trump supporters

Trump’s odds remained flat to last week’s 2.01X, close to his all time high set at the start of August of 1.90X, but also tied for his lowest odds in 10 weeks. Trump has seen his average net favorability rating drop from an average of -10 to the current -12 over those 70 days. His odds vs. the top 5 Democrats dropped from 48.9% to 48.0%, as their combined odds increased from 1.92X to 1.86X.

Although Elizabeth Warren (5.65X last week to 5.52X) and Bernie Sanders (11.1X last week vs. 10.9X this week) kept their momentum, the big movers for the Democrats this week were Kamala Harris and Andrew Yang.

Harris came into this week dropping in seven straight weeks over which her odds changed from 5.57X to last week’s 15.2X. She reversed that trend this week by improving to 14.3X. According to a Trump aide, she’s the candidate they most fear as she is the least flawed. Who knows if that’s truly what the Trump campaign believes or if that’s an attempt to help her bump Warren/Biden/Sanders down from the top.

Andrew Yang improved from 26.2X to 21.8X putting more space between his odds and those of Buttigieg, whom he passed last week. This is a new all time high for Yang. Oddly enough, he’s now drawing support from supporters of both Sanders and Trump.

Here are the the candidates that have a better than 200 to 1 shot.

Here’s a 6 month trend of the top 5 candidates:

For updates follow me on Twitter

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