All posts by Aztocas

2020 Weekly Odds, Harris 2020, Johnson 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Donald Trump’s Odds See a Slight Decline; Kamala Harris Jumps to 6th Place as She Attracts Donors; Dwayne Johnson up into Top 10; Sanders Improves but Still in 5th Place

Donald Trump’s odds took a slight hit this week as his Chief of Staff resigned/was fired.  His payout moved up from 3.0X to 3.1X.  That is the lowest odds in 10 weeks.  His probability drops from 20.4% to 19.7%.  His odds remain about 3 times his next competitor, his VP Mike Pence, who is at 8.6X.

The hottest name remains Kamala Harris.  She continued to meet with influential Democratic fundraisers including many formerly associated with Clinton. Her payout dropped from 25.2X to 19.6X.  That was enough to move her from 10th place to 6th place.  A mere 5 weeks ago she was in 12th place at a payout of 30.9X.

Another hot name has been Dwayne Johnson.  In a week with no 2020 news about him, he jumped from 13th place to 8th place with his payout dropping from 31X to 24X.   It’s common to see jumps like this when there are very few sites with odds on someone.  That is not the case here.  This is based on 9 different odds makers.

Reports of Bernie Sanders likely running helped his odds as his payout declined from 19.9X to 18.6X.  He remains in 5th place.  This matches the best odds he has had, which previously came at the beginning of July.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 688

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Franken 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Steady; Kamala Harris into Top 10; Franken up, Biden down

For the 9th straight week, Donald Trump’s payout remained at 3.0X with his probability at 20.4%.  That is once again equivalent to the probability for the next four competitors combined.

Kamala Harris was the hottest name on the week as she continues to meet with Democratic power brokers and donors. Her payout dropped from 28.6X to 25.2X.  That was enough for her to jump over Paul Ryan for 10th place overall.  Her payout was over 30X just four weeks ago.

Al Franken continues to be another hot name.  His payout dropped from 63X to 59X.  He was at 71.7X five weeks ago before releasing his book and embarking on a bit of a promotional tour.  He is currently in 29th place.

One big drop was Joe Biden who’s payout moved from 23.3X to 24.2X.  This is the worst he has been in 9 weeks.  He was asked about running in 2020 by Katie Couric and dodged the question on Saturday.  He remains in 7th place overall.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 747

2020 Weekly Odds, Johnson 2020, Pence 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Trump Steady Despite Trump Jr. Emails; Dwayne Johnson Regains Momentum with Launch of Election Committee; Pence up, Sanders down

 

Despite last week’s continuing saga of Donald Trump Jr./Russian meeting emails, Donald Trump’s odds remained steady for the 8th straight week at 3.0X.  His odds are nearly three times that of his next opponent who happens to be his VP, Mike Pence.

Mike Pence’s odds got a boost on the week with the payout dropping from 8.7X to 8.5X.  That is his highest in four weeks.  Some took the fact that he has remained low key with his response to the emails as him hedging his bet and positioning himself to potentially become President.

Bernie Sanders had one of the biggest drops.  He had been hot lately with his opposition to the Republican healthcare bills.  His payout had steadily declined from 23.9X in the middle of May to last week’s 18.6X.  That suddenly reversed this week to 19.4X.  When asked this week about running in 2020, he said ‘I am not taking it off the table’  One reason for the drop could be a federal probe into a land deal his wife was involved in. He remains in 5th overall and 3rd as far as Democrats behind Warren and Obama.

Eight weeks ago, the hottest name was actor Dwayne Johnson.  Following an appearance on the Tonight Show, he jumped from 41st place in the middle of May to 16th place in the span of two weeks.  He has then held steady. This week a campaign committee was started on his behalf. His payout dropped from 42.7X to 31.0X.  This was enough to move him from 21st to 13th place.

Here is a list of all the odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 789