All posts by Aztocas

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Trump’s Odds Continue to Drift Higher; Schultz Odds Reach High After Leaving Starbucks; Gillibrand Building Support Among Dems; Newsom Wins Primary and Odds Drop

Donald Trump improved his odds from 2.73X to 2.68X.  These are his best odds in 15 months.   One would expect a natural drift of the odds closer to 2.0X by the summer of 2020 as the number of days for any political catastrophe or potential Republican challenger shrink.

The biggest move up this week was Howard Schultz. The former leader of Starbucks stepped down this week and it was followed by immediate speculation of a 2020 run. His odds jumped from 59.0X to 47.4X.  These are his highest odds this cycle and push him up from 27th place to 16th place.

Kirsten Gillibrand continues to slowly drift up.  She was up this week from 24.2X to 23.4X, her highest in 9 weeks.  She remains in 7th place.  Gillibrand has been helping fellow Democrats raise money, which could payoff during a 2020 run.

Gavin Newsom won a spot in the primaries to run for CA Governor this week where he will be heavily favored.  There’s plenty of speculation about the current CA LT Governor’s potential as a Presidential candidate, although 2020 may not be the right year for him. His odds dropped from 42.5X to 47.8X, dropping him from 12th place to 17th place.

Here are the full odds:

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Top 7 Candidates Improve: Sanders up to Second Place; Kamala Harris at All Time High, Trump at 15 Months, Warren at 7 Week

All of the top candidates saw improvements in their odds this week.

Donald Trump’s odds are now at 2.73X, his highest since March of 2017.  His all time high was the start of 2017 at 2.41X.

The hottest name recently has been Bernie Sanders.  He took over second place from Kamala Harris 9 weeks ago and has since increased his lead.  His odds are currently at 10.9X (4 times lower than Trump’s)  up from 11.4X the prior week. He was at 14.4X three months ago.  Sanders will take a swing through CA next month,  a state that will play a big role in the 2020 since it has moved up its primary to March of that year.

Elizabeth Warren is also saw a big jump this week improving from 14.9X to 13.9X, her highest in 7 weeks.  She has has “quietly waged a months-long, behind-the-scenes effort to put “Pocahontas” in the past.” She jumped over Joe Biden for 4th place.

Despite falling from second place, Kamala Harris has been slowly improving and reached another high this week.  She improved from 12.1 to 12.0, an all time high.  Although her moves the past few months have been very incremental, she has improved on a pretty regular basis. She is currently in 3rd place.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Harris 2020, Obama 2020, Pence 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Reflection on First 18 Months of 2020 Election Cycle: How Have the Odds Shifted at the Top?

We are 18 months post the 2016 Election.  How have the odds at the top changed?

At the very top, Donald Trump has maintained a giant lead throughout.  He was at 2.6 to 1 in December, started dropping immediately and bottomed at 3.5 to 1 in September 2017, but has rebounded to his current 2.7X.  Although he has the most likely odds, they are still well under 50%.

Mike Pence was the number 2 candidate in December, most of those odds revolved around speculation of either Trump not finishing his term or not running in 2020.  As time has gone on, those odds have drifted down.  His odds have dropped from 9.5X in December to the current 15.5X. As a result he has dropped from 2nd place to the current 6th place.

Elizabeth Warren started as the Democratic favorite.  Much like 2016, Warren had many on the left believing it was her time while she gave no indication of running.  She started out at 11.1 to 1 odds.  She then stated she would run for the Senate and finish out her term if she wins. That would indicate no 2020 run.  Her odds dropped as a result to 14.9 to 1, but she still remains near the top in 5th place overall.

Michelle Obama began in 4th place at 13.7 to 1.  The former First Lady had a high favorability rating and name recognition.  She has consistently stated she is not running and as a result has dropped to 10th place overall and odds at 31.3X.

Cory Booker began in 5th place at 19.6 to 1. While most speculate that he will still run, he has been overshadowed as a top tier Democratic candidate by Sanders, Harris, and Biden.

Bernie Sanders was in 14th place in December at 32.1X.  Most believed he would not run in 2020, perhaps due to age or for talk of the Democrats looking for new blood at the top.  Instead, Sanders has managed to stay relevant and moved up to be the top contender as of right now for the Democratic nomination.  He has the experience and infrastructure of a campaign and has seen his odds improve to 11.4X, nearly tripling over the last three months.

Kamala Harris is the biggest mover of all.  The freshman Senator from CA did not have a national profile back in Dec 16.  She was in 15th place with odds of 34.8 to 1.  Over the past 18 months she has elevated her national profile and even reached second place overall back in March.  She is currently in 3rd place at 12.1X.

Joe Biden is the other big riser over the last 18 months.  Much like Sanders, Biden was discounted due to age and the Democrats wanting a fresh face for 2020. He was in 10th place in Dec 2017 at 26.8 to 1. Despite not holding an office, Biden has managed to keep his name in the news.  He has taken on President Trump at every opportunity and refuses to rule out running in 2020. He is currently in 4th place overall at 14.6X.

Here’s the top 5 then and now as well as the overall current leaderboard:

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