All posts by Aztocas

2020 Weekly Odds, Bloomberg 2020, Garcetti 2020, Harris 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Continue to Improve; Kamala Harris Doesn’t Rule Out Running, Jumps to Second Place; Bloomberg Active In Helping Dems Capture House; Garcetti Continues to Increase Profile

Donald Trump’s odds continued to improve inching up from 2.46X to 2.45X, his highest odds since the inauguration in Jan 2017.  He has either been flat or improved the last 14 weeks.  He was at 2.79X at the start of the streak.

Kamala Harris improved from 11.8X to 11.4X.  This is a new high for her and enough of an improvement to have her jump back into second place ahead of Bernie Sanders.  Harris would not rule out running in 2020 this week when pressed for an answer during an interview.

Michael Bloomberg improved from 48.4X to 45.8X. This was enough to move him from 14th place to 13th place.  He has been on a mini hot streak moving from 21st place at the beginning of the month. Bloomberg is making sizable contributions to help the Democrats win the House in 2018.  Some think this may also be a way to set him up for a possible 2020 run.

Erica Garcetti improved from 68.1X to 67.3X and moving up from 32nd place to 31st. He was in 36th place four weeks ago.  Garcetti continued to increase his profile this week by having an in depth interview with Vox

Here are the full odds:

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2018 Elections, 2020 Weekly Odds, Hickenlooper 2020, Trump 2020

Trump Continues to Edge Up; John Hickenlooper Odds Improve as He Weighs in on Immigrant Debate; State of ’18 Congressional Elections

Trump continued to edge up as his odds improved from 2.47X to 2.46X.  These are his best odds since his inauguration at end of January 2017.

Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper weighed in on the immigration debate by signing an executive order banning the use of CO resources from separating immigrant families.  The term limited Democrat is thought to be leaning towards running in 2020.  His odds jumped from 68.8X to 65.0X. He moves up from 32nd place to 31st.

There were very few other moves in odds on the week.

Here are the overall results:

One thing to keep an eye on is the 2018 Congressional elections.  It is well known that regardless of which party has the White House, it looses seats in the midterm elections.  That is likely to be the case this year for Congress, although the Republicans may increase their lead in the Senate (due to 29 D Senate seats up for election vs. 9 for Republicans).

Here is the trend of expected seats.  This uses the projections from the  Cook Political Report and assigns probabilities.  The chart shows the progress of the “Blue Wave” over time.  It seems to have plateaued in April.  Current forecast is 223 Democrats and 213 Republicans.

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

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Uncategorized

Trump’s Odds Close to Post Election Highs; Obama Meets Top 2020 Candidates; Bob Iger Makes Debut

Donald Trump finally met with Korean dictator Kim Jong-un and that seemed to help his odds as they jumped from 2.68X to 2.47X, his highest since January 2017.  He is very close to his peak odds of 2.41X which he reached the first week of January 2017.

Former President Barack Obama met with 10 potential 2020 candidates. The top candidates he met with:

  • Bernie Sanders 2nd overall at 11.6X
  • Joe Biden 4th place at 14.6X
  • Elizabeth Warren 5th place at 14.6X
  • Cory Booker 9th place at 30.0X
  • Deval Patrick 22nd place at 54.7X

Although it is unlikely Obama endorses any of the candidates during the primary, they will likely try to connect themselves as much as possible to the popular ex President, and these meetings are just a part of that.

Interestingly one person missing from that list is Kamala Harris who is third overall at 11.7X.

One new name on the list is Bob Iger.  Although there was no news related to the Disney CEO and 2020 elections, two websites added odds for him at 41X this week.  That gave him enough odds to qualify for our standings.  He makes his debut at 41.8X which puts him in 11th place just ahead of fellow CEO Jamie Dimon and just behind Michelle Obama.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

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