All posts by Aztocas

Trump Sees First Dip in 20 Weeks; Warren Standout at Netroots Nation; Bloomberg Most Likely Centrist? Garcetti to Decide After Midterms

After 20 straight weeks of his odds improving, Donald Trump finally saw a dip.  His odds dropped from 2.31X to 2.33X.  That is still the second highest he has been at this whole cycle and is still nearly 5 times more likely to get elected as the next competitor.

Elizabeth Warren was the standout at Netroots Nation and is seen by many as the darling of the left. Her odds once again improved from 14.0X to 13.5X.  These are her highest odds in 19 weeks.  She remains in 4th place behind both Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders but ahead of Joe Biden for the Democrats.

The most likely “centrist” for either party continues to be Michael Bloomberg. His odds improved from 48.4X to 42.5X.  These are his best odds in 18 weeks.  He is slowly making his move up from 15th place five weeks ago to 11th place this week.

Eric Garcetti says he’ll decide on whether he is running after the midterms.  TMZ is more confident about him running. His odds improved from 62.8X to 54.7X.  That is a new high and moves him from 24th place to 15th place.

Here are the full odds:

Views – 692

Trump and Kamala Harris Reach New Highs; Poll Shows Biden Ahead of Trump; Warren Hints at Running Because of Trump

Donald Trump brought his improvement streak to 20 weeks this week as his odds once again improved from 2.35X to 2.31X.  He was at 2.79X at the beginning of the streak.

Kamala Harris continues to be strong in the number 2 spot and also set a new high at 11.2X improving from 11.4X.  This is her 6th straight week in the number 2 spot and has been trending up very slowly.

Joe Biden improved for the third straight week, this time from 14.1X to 13.8X.   He remained in 4th place overall. A poll released this week showed him ahead of Trump by 7 points (44 % Biden 37% Trump with 19% undecided).

Elizabeth Warren hinted in an interview that she might run with Trump being the main reason.  Her odds improved from 14.4X to 14.0X. These are her best odds in 8 weeks and she remains in 5th place.

Here are the full odds:

 

Views – 732

Trump’s Odds Continue to Hit New Highs; Biden Might Be Toughest Opponent; Bullock Continues to Raise Profile; Could a Business Leader Beat Trump?

Trump’s odds continued to improve this week despite what again seemed to be a bad week in the news.  This week tapes of Trump and his lawyer Cohen discussing a payoff surfaced, and he once again reached a new high as far as odds.  He improved from 2.38X to 2.35X. This is a new all time high and he has now either been flat or improved for 18 straight weeks.

Another person reaching an all time high this week is Joe Biden who improved from 14.3X to 14.1X.  Axios reports Biden is the one person Trump fears the most as he may flip Pennsylvania.  Biden has seen slow but steady improvement since the end of the 2016 elections.

One less known name that is raising his profile is Montana Governor Steve Bullock.  He is the next chairman of the National Governors Association and gives Democrats a way to get back the rural voters that seem to have left the party.

Will Trump’s competition in 2020 come from another business leader?  One Republican super PAC seems to think so and is busy digging up dirt on those business leaders.  Of the leaders mentioned in the article, the tops as far as odds are:

  • Jamie Dimon in 11th place at 44.3X
  • Howard Schultz in 14th place at 52.5X
  • Bob Iger in 36th place at 81.0X
  • Mark Cuban in 49th place at 99.8X

Here are the full odds:

Views – 683