Donald Trump’s odds improved slightly from 2.52X to 2.50X. This is the highest he has been in 7 weeks. He has been out campaigning for Republicans the past few weeks and seems to be energized each day at his rallies.
“Establishment” Republicans have been looking for a challenger to Trump in 2020. Bill Kristol would like to talk Nikki Haley into it. Her odds increased slightly to 57.7X from 58.0X. She is in 18th place overall and third among the Republicans behind Trump and Pence.
John Hickenlooper is “leaning strongly” towards running. His odds improved from 68.8X to 65.6X, and he moved from 28th place to 24th place. These are his best odds in 12 weeks.
After four straight weeks of odds at 2.55X, Donald Trump’s odds improved this week to 2.52X, his highest in 5 weeks. He has been in a tight range of 2.45X to 2.55X the last 8 weeks.
They say actions speak louder than words and the most telling action of someone that is running is appearances in Iowa. Montana Governor Steve Bullock was in Iowa this week to help Democrats campaign. His odds improved from 94.6X to 90.5X. That was enough to move him from 49th place to 41st place. This is the highest he has been.
The leading Democratic candidate contender (based on odds) for the nomination, Kamala Harris, was also in Iowa. Her odds improved as well from 8.75X to 8.37X. These are the second highest odds behind the 7.74X she was at 3 weeks ago.
Donald Trump’s odds remained unchanged for the fourth straight week at 2.55X. These are his lowest odds since June but well above his average for the cycle of 2.88X. He remains more than 3x as likely to win as his next closest competitor.
Elizabeth Warren made news this week by releasing DNA test results showing she is part American Indian. What most agree on is this was a step towards running in 2020. What is debatable is whether this helped her or not. Some thought she played right into Trump’s hands, which will cause her to lose if she is the nominee. Her odds showed little movement to the news, coming in at 11.5X. She’s averaged 11.6X the last 6 weeks. She remains in 3rd place overall.
We reported on Nikki Haley’s odds jumping last week as a result of her resignation. What we didn’t call out is the impact it had on Mike Pence. Pence had been at an average of 17.6X for the 3 prior months. He dropped last week to 19.0X and this week to 19.4X. That was enough to drop him to 6th place overall. Many like Joe Scarborough, speculate that she resigned to move out of being behind Mike Pence inline for President whether it’s 2020 or 2024.
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