Biden’s odds dropped again from 1.61X to 1.64X, his lowest in 5 weeks.
Trump’s odds improved from 2.43X to 2.33X, his highest in 8 weeks.
Implied odds for Biden now at 58.7%, lowest in 8 weeks
Here’s the overall odds and trend:
The electoral projections showed a small move to Trump’s side with only two models moving: The economist which is the lowest for Trump, increased his forecast from 181 to 188, and FiveThirtyEight which is the closest to the overall average, increased Biden from 322 to 325. The overall forecast changed from Biden 328-210 to 327-211.
Keeping it simple: For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina and make up for being behind in Arizona, Florida, and Pennsylvania. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls of each of those 6 states.
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