Trump’s odds improved for a 6th straight week improving this week from 1.99X to 1.94X. These are his best odds in 15 weeks.
Joe Biden managed to hold Trump off from the lead as his odds dropped from 1.83X to 1.90X. That’s his fifth drop in a row and his lowest odds in 13 weeks.
Implied odds for Biden now at 50.6%, lowest in 14 weeks. Trump has now gained on Biden for 5 straight weeks.
Here’s the overall odds and trend:
The Electoral forecast continued to be about the Economist and Five Thirty Eight models being tweaked at the edges, often in the opposite direction. This week the Economist model improved for Trump and FiveThirtyEight model dropped for Trump. Interestingly, the FiveThirtyEight model takes into account expected convention bumps. The drop just shows Trump’s bump was lower than what candidates got historically (same for Biden a week back). In total the forecast moved from 326-212 Biden to 324-214 Biden.
Keeping it simple: For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio and make up for being behind in North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, and Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. The only change from last week is North Carolina now leaning towards Biden. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls for 7 of these 8 states.
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